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Better hurray with that analysis.....
especially since CNBC mentioned just TODAY: "look out if the September lows
are taken out !"
This could happen within a week.....
it'll be all over by August.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Treasure [mailto:Treasure@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2002 2:56 PM
> To: OMEGA LIST
> Subject: RE: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
>
>
> I personally received much flak in 1997 when I went on CompuServe 2 weeks
> before October 27 and made a bold calculation for October 27 as a possible
> crash date. However, this did not prevent me and a couple of others on the
> forum from laying down a few put options on the S&P500 index futures. That
> evening (10/27) I got a few calls from NY and Chicago from some telling me
> how they raked in about 30k per option. I made less, only 17k (since I did
> what I should have not done, waited until the next morning to exit). I
> actually had the general time period pinned down 3 months in
> advance but was
> about to narrow the calculation down to the very day 2 weeks
> ahead of time.
> I never heard after that from the people who had called me names. I swore
> that I would from that point keep all my calculations to myself
> and avoiding
> opening myself up to more ridicule. However, since this thread has been
> dropped down I thought I might give it a peep. So history repeats itself.
>
> IMHO, the first thing that I learned, which helps tremendously in calling
> the "crash" periods, is that crashes are engineered and don't
> "just happen".
> Going off of this premise and knowing the source of the engineering I was
> able to establish a general time period. Also backing this up
> with phi ratio
> time calculations. I also looked at money supply M1 and M2 to
> reaffirm both
> 1987 and 1997 dates. Like stacking blocks, when the stack can't support
> another block the market was set to take a tumble. What helped to narrow
> down to the very day was a method I developed back in '95 called "fractal
> signature analysis" (FSA) and "fractal signature predictivity
> model" (FSPM)
> (proprietary). I compared the "signatures" of 1929, 1987, 1994 and 1997.
> The signatures lined up and a topple seemed eminent. Then I authored a
> thread entitled "Boom and Crash Engineering" that explained the "crash
> engineering" theory and published it on the CompuServe forum. The
> final date
> was established via what I call the esoteric "dark date
> calculation" for the
> year 1997, a special insider date that varies from year to year that is
> virtually unknown by the public.
>
> So what about the year 2002? I haven't begun to calculate this out yet.
> However it is nearing the time to begin. It would be essential that I
> establish this before August timeframe. However, the calculations
> involve a
> tremendous amount of manual work and have not had time to put FSPM into a
> program. I have been a programmer for more than 23 years, but FSPM would
> require a couple of months of solid programming time to automate. However
> 2002 may be a good candidate for a crash.
>
> IMHO, Mike.
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: _Craig [mailto:craigbud@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 12:01 PM
> To: Bill Wynne; biloselhi@xxxxxxxxxxx; gm@xxxxxxxxxxxxx;
> icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
>
>
> >We could have some combination of the 30s, 40s and 70s but
> today, we don't
> >have the isolationist attitudes of the 30's or the defeated attitudes of
> the
> >70s. Also, unlike the 70s, and more like the late 30s, we have
> a virulent
> >spread of Fascist Islamism into the old Soviet territories and Europe,
> which
> .is a direct threat to Western civilization. Like the 40's, a complacent
> .America was attacked and is now retooling for war. Another Vietnam?
> .Impossible because unlike the intentions of the Vietnamese, the Islamists
> .won't stop terrorizing the US until they are completely and utterly
> .defeated. That will maintain our moral clarity throughout an extended
> .campaign, like the 40s..
>
> .What will this do to equities? Volatility and liquidity will fall, in my
> .opinion. Many stock traders may have to move to commodities.
> Another 1999?
> .Not in our life times. 1929? We already had it. Another fall would be
> .like the one in the early 30s. 1987? Things were not corrupt
> enough, and
> .the bubble wasn't big enough to blow up the bull market, so it continued
> .through the 90s. World events were better back then also.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill Wynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <biloselhi@xxxxxxxxxxx>; <gm@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>;
> <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
>
>
> > >then they got Hitler, now we got UBL...
> >
> > Or how about the 70's?
> > Ayatullah Komeini then, and Osama bin Laden now: both powerful Muslim
> > revolutionaries exported terror attacks on Americans from exile.
> > Also the pattern in the DJI from the Y2K peak to the September 2001 lows
> > is very similar (although accelerated and compressed by the WTC
> > disaster) to the DJI decline from the 1966 top to the 1974 low.
> >
> > Lots of differences, there was no equivalent to the NDX then, and
> > I agree there may be deflation more like the 1930's.
> > Just a thought....it might mean a more choppy grinding bear rather
> > than the 1930's style "do not pass go, don't collect $200,
> > go directly to Hell (and WWIII)."
> >
> > Then again, it may just be wishful thinking: I spent most of the 1970's
> > as a surf bum on Maui, that bear market didn't seem so bad at all.
> > I'd do it all again ;-) if I could....
> >
> > BW
> >
> >
> > >From: "Bilo Selhi" <biloselhi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: "Gerald Marisch" <gm@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Ian McVicar"
> <icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > > "OmegaList" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> > >Date: Fri, 7 Jun 2002 18:01:21 -0400
> > >
> > >it proves the point that sometimes slower is better than faster.
> > >the 1990 bull market is was the result of:
> > >1. piece time expansion after cold war
> > >2. conversion from analog world to digital world
> > >3. Clintonomics, do what you want, grab what you can, as fast
> as you can,
> > >regardless of the consequences.
> > >
> > >teaches us one thing: waves like that only come once in a lifetime,
> > >you either join it or miss it. those that made money in the 1990
> > >and took profits will now enjoy the rest of their lives more than those
> > >who missed or stayed in too long.
> > >
> > >in fact it is more of less a repeat of '29 when the attitude
> was the same
> > >in the corporate world: exploit the moment NOW, forget about the rest,
> > >basically lie, cheat and steal, EXPLOIT while the president does the
> same.
> > >
> > >some call dow 5000 and nasdaq 1000, real estate crash and weak
> > >dollar, that the same as 1929.
> > > who knows... the secular up trend is untouched but let's recall
> > >what factors attribute to a depression:
> > >1. lower interest rates, close to 0 rates
> > >2. lower market, bear market
> > >3. lower confidence in the financial system
> > >4. contractionary fiscal policy
> > >
> > >until 911 we had all 4 there. after 911 gov. will spend more.
> > >
> > >i think Bush ( it's funny how Bushes always get into war situations,
> > >burning
> > >Bush, maybe? ) made the right move on creation of Homeland security
> > >department with 170K employees. if that works it will be the only thing
> > >that
> > >can protect us from the real disaster. remember this country
> is all about
> > >consumer. if the consumer is scared and stops consuming, that's it the
> > >empire
> > >is gone.
> > >
> > >
> > >in 29 Roosevelt went with Security Exchange act
> > >in 02 Bush went with Homeland Security act.
> > >you can see the similarity....
> > >both times the empire was/is very vulnerable.
> > >both times it was designed to protect the consumer and boost confidence
> in
> > >the system.
> > >both times it was after run up after peaceful expansion after
> a war ( WWI
> > >vs ColdWarOne )
> > >... both time it was followed by a depression and then a greater war (
> this
> > >is a speculation ),
> > >then they got Hitler, now we got UBL...
> > >
> > >so think about what you want but there is clear similarity between now
> and
> > >29.
> > >both times America is very vulnerable...
> > >
> > >just cross your fingers that terrorists will not come up with something
> on
> > >the level of 911
> > >within the next 2-3 years. we'll probably pull out of this bottom by
> then.
> > >else who knows... it took thousands of years to demolish empires as
> history
> > >tells us
> > >but recently empires can fall faster... Russia changed in under 10
> years...
> > >actually took
> > >less than 5 years to fall...
> > >
> > >i am bullish on America too, just not short term, thank you.
> > >have a nice weekend everybody.
> > >bilo.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: Gerald Marisch
> > >To: Ian McVicar ; OmegaList
> > >Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 9:10 AM
> > >Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> > >
> > >
> > >"...close the door and turn off the lights?"
> > >
> > >Dry humor aside, we as investors, speculators and traders, should OPEN
> MORE
> > >DOORS and TURN ON MORE LIGHTS.
> > >
> > >1929 is ancient history. The investment community is light years ahead
> of
> > >where it was in 1929. Sophistication, new horizons and global markets
> > >reign. The American financial markets are the envy and prototype of
> every
> > >world-wide exchange.
> > >
> > >Regulations and the strictest enforcement possible is in place as
> reflected
> > >in my post of 6-6-02, repeated here:
> > >
> > >"The following is from Jewish World Today, 6-6-02 - a great day in
> > >Freedom's
> > >history.
> > >
> > >"On this day in 1934, the New Deal swept through Wall Street, as
> President
> > >Franklin Roosevelt signed the Securities Exchange Act. With
> the swoop of
> > >his
> > >pen, Roosevelt sanctioned a set of regulations designed to rein in the
> > >stock
> > >swapping shenanigans and duplicitous sales tactics that had riddled the
> New
> > >York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and helped spark the Great Crash of 1929."
> > >
> > >-------------------
> > >
> > >1987? Black Monday? A serious event but truly and anomaly to the
> overall
> > >pulse of the markets. And if you believe Gann "stuff", note
> that the Dow
> > >recovered 50% almost overnight and went onward and upward from there.
> > >
> > >--------------------
> > >
> > >Turn off the lights? ALL STADIUM LIGHTS SHOULD BE ON! Long
> term as the
> > >commercial goes... "I'm Bullish on America". Everyone else should be
> too!
> > >
> > >
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "Ian McVicar" <icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: "OmegaList" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 00:27
> > >Subject: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> > >
> > >
> > >SHOULD WE close the door and turn off the lights????
> > >
> > >What you think ?
> > >
> > >Ian
> > >PS : I am not assciated with this service, just thought its was
> interesting
> > >
> > >LINK : http://www.jasmts.com
> > >
> > >
> > >In one of Jim Shepherd's recent newsletters he pointed out that six of
> the
> > >largest companies in America have now lost over $1.6 trillion of market
> > >capitalization in the last 2 years, an amount equal to $5,000 for every
> man
> > >woman and child in this country.
> > >
> > >During that same time period the subscribers to The Shepherd Investment
> > >Strategist have preserved their wealth while taking advantage of the
> first
> > >of
> > >several investment recommendations to deal with such an environment
> > >identified
> > >by his model. That first recommendation by Jim Shepherd has now grown
> > >relatively safely by approximately 39% since late 1999 and new
> > >recommendations
> > >are on the way.
> > >
> > >As an investor, you know that the temptations put forward by the
> financial
> > >media enticing you to stay in the stock market have been almost
> > >irresistible.
> > >Jim's recent Special Report just released earlier this month on "The
> > >Psychology
> > >of the Markets" covers this. If nothing else you should take a
> moment to
> > >read
> > >this short but succinct outline of the pressures investors have been
> under.
> > >Reading it may save you from making a similar error in the NEAR future.
> See
> > >it
> > >at this link: Psychology of the Markets.
> > >
> > >http://www.sold.com.au - The Sold.com.au Big Brand Sale
> > >- New PCs, notebooks, digital cameras, phones and more ...
> Sale ends June
> > >12
> > >
> >
> >
>
>
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