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We could have some combination of the 30s, 40s and 70s but today, we don't
have the isolationist attitudes of the 30's or the defeated attitudes of the
70s. Also, unlike the 70s, and more like the late 30s, we have a virulent
spread of Fascist Islamism into the old Soviet territories and Europe, which
is a direct threat to Western civilization. Like the 40's, a complacent
America was attacked and is now retooling for war. Another Vietnam?
Impossible because unlike the intentions of the Vietnamese, the Islamists
won't stop terrorizing the US until they are completely and utterly
defeated. That will maintain our moral clarity throughout an extended
campaign, like the 40s.
What will this do to equities? Volatility and liquidity will fall, in my
opinion. Many stock traders may have to move to commodities. Another 1999?
Not in our life times. 1929? We already had it. Another fall would be
like the one in the early 30s. 1987? Things were not corrupt enough, and
the bubble wasn't big enough to blow up the bull market, so it continued
through the 90s. World events were better back then also.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Wynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <biloselhi@xxxxxxxxxxx>; <gm@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>;
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> >then they got Hitler, now we got UBL...
>
> Or how about the 70's?
> Ayatullah Komeini then, and Osama bin Laden now: both powerful Muslim
> revolutionaries exported terror attacks on Americans from exile.
> Also the pattern in the DJI from the Y2K peak to the September 2001 lows
> is very similar (although accelerated and compressed by the WTC
> disaster) to the DJI decline from the 1966 top to the 1974 low.
>
> Lots of differences, there was no equivalent to the NDX then, and
> I agree there may be deflation more like the 1930's.
> Just a thought....it might mean a more choppy grinding bear rather
> than the 1930's style "do not pass go, don't collect $200,
> go directly to Hell (and WWIII)."
>
> Then again, it may just be wishful thinking: I spent most of the 1970's
> as a surf bum on Maui, that bear market didn't seem so bad at all.
> I'd do it all again ;-) if I could....
>
> BW
>
>
> >From: "Bilo Selhi" <biloselhi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: "Gerald Marisch" <gm@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Ian McVicar"
<icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > "OmegaList" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> >Date: Fri, 7 Jun 2002 18:01:21 -0400
> >
> >it proves the point that sometimes slower is better than faster.
> >the 1990 bull market is was the result of:
> >1. piece time expansion after cold war
> >2. conversion from analog world to digital world
> >3. Clintonomics, do what you want, grab what you can, as fast as you can,
> >regardless of the consequences.
> >
> >teaches us one thing: waves like that only come once in a lifetime,
> >you either join it or miss it. those that made money in the 1990
> >and took profits will now enjoy the rest of their lives more than those
> >who missed or stayed in too long.
> >
> >in fact it is more of less a repeat of '29 when the attitude was the same
> >in the corporate world: exploit the moment NOW, forget about the rest,
> >basically lie, cheat and steal, EXPLOIT while the president does the
same.
> >
> >some call dow 5000 and nasdaq 1000, real estate crash and weak
> >dollar, that the same as 1929.
> > who knows... the secular up trend is untouched but let's recall
> >what factors attribute to a depression:
> >1. lower interest rates, close to 0 rates
> >2. lower market, bear market
> >3. lower confidence in the financial system
> >4. contractionary fiscal policy
> >
> >until 911 we had all 4 there. after 911 gov. will spend more.
> >
> >i think Bush ( it's funny how Bushes always get into war situations,
> >burning
> >Bush, maybe? ) made the right move on creation of Homeland security
> >department with 170K employees. if that works it will be the only thing
> >that
> >can protect us from the real disaster. remember this country is all about
> >consumer. if the consumer is scared and stops consuming, that's it the
> >empire
> >is gone.
> >
> >
> >in 29 Roosevelt went with Security Exchange act
> >in 02 Bush went with Homeland Security act.
> >you can see the similarity....
> >both times the empire was/is very vulnerable.
> >both times it was designed to protect the consumer and boost confidence
in
> >the system.
> >both times it was after run up after peaceful expansion after a war ( WWI
> >vs ColdWarOne )
> >... both time it was followed by a depression and then a greater war (
this
> >is a speculation ),
> >then they got Hitler, now we got UBL...
> >
> >so think about what you want but there is clear similarity between now
and
> >29.
> >both times America is very vulnerable...
> >
> >just cross your fingers that terrorists will not come up with something
on
> >the level of 911
> >within the next 2-3 years. we'll probably pull out of this bottom by
then.
> >else who knows... it took thousands of years to demolish empires as
history
> >tells us
> >but recently empires can fall faster... Russia changed in under 10
years...
> >actually took
> >less than 5 years to fall...
> >
> >i am bullish on America too, just not short term, thank you.
> >have a nice weekend everybody.
> >bilo.
> >
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Gerald Marisch
> >To: Ian McVicar ; OmegaList
> >Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 9:10 AM
> >Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> >
> >
> >"...close the door and turn off the lights?"
> >
> >Dry humor aside, we as investors, speculators and traders, should OPEN
MORE
> >DOORS and TURN ON MORE LIGHTS.
> >
> >1929 is ancient history. The investment community is light years ahead
of
> >where it was in 1929. Sophistication, new horizons and global markets
> >reign. The American financial markets are the envy and prototype of
every
> >world-wide exchange.
> >
> >Regulations and the strictest enforcement possible is in place as
reflected
> >in my post of 6-6-02, repeated here:
> >
> >"The following is from Jewish World Today, 6-6-02 - a great day in
> >Freedom's
> >history.
> >
> >"On this day in 1934, the New Deal swept through Wall Street, as
President
> >Franklin Roosevelt signed the Securities Exchange Act. With the swoop of
> >his
> >pen, Roosevelt sanctioned a set of regulations designed to rein in the
> >stock
> >swapping shenanigans and duplicitous sales tactics that had riddled the
New
> >York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and helped spark the Great Crash of 1929."
> >
> >-------------------
> >
> >1987? Black Monday? A serious event but truly and anomaly to the
overall
> >pulse of the markets. And if you believe Gann "stuff", note that the Dow
> >recovered 50% almost overnight and went onward and upward from there.
> >
> >--------------------
> >
> >Turn off the lights? ALL STADIUM LIGHTS SHOULD BE ON! Long term as the
> >commercial goes... "I'm Bullish on America". Everyone else should be
too!
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Ian McVicar" <icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: "OmegaList" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 00:27
> >Subject: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
> >
> >
> >SHOULD WE close the door and turn off the lights????
> >
> >What you think ?
> >
> >Ian
> >PS : I am not assciated with this service, just thought its was
interesting
> >
> >LINK : http://www.jasmts.com
> >
> >
> >In one of Jim Shepherd's recent newsletters he pointed out that six of
the
> >largest companies in America have now lost over $1.6 trillion of market
> >capitalization in the last 2 years, an amount equal to $5,000 for every
man
> >woman and child in this country.
> >
> >During that same time period the subscribers to The Shepherd Investment
> >Strategist have preserved their wealth while taking advantage of the
first
> >of
> >several investment recommendations to deal with such an environment
> >identified
> >by his model. That first recommendation by Jim Shepherd has now grown
> >relatively safely by approximately 39% since late 1999 and new
> >recommendations
> >are on the way.
> >
> >As an investor, you know that the temptations put forward by the
financial
> >media enticing you to stay in the stock market have been almost
> >irresistible.
> >Jim's recent Special Report just released earlier this month on "The
> >Psychology
> >of the Markets" covers this. If nothing else you should take a moment to
> >read
> >this short but succinct outline of the pressures investors have been
under.
> >Reading it may save you from making a similar error in the NEAR future.
See
> >it
> >at this link: Psychology of the Markets.
> >
> >http://www.sold.com.au - The Sold.com.au Big Brand Sale
> >- New PCs, notebooks, digital cameras, phones and more ... Sale ends June
> >12
> >
>
>
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