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it proves the point that sometimes slower is better than faster.
the 1990 bull market is was the result of:
1. piece time expansion after cold war
2. conversion from analog world to digital world
3. Clintonomics, do what you want, grab what you can, as fast as you can,
regardless of the consequences.
teaches us one thing: waves like that only come once in a lifetime,
you either join it or miss it. those that made money in the 1990
and took profits will now enjoy the rest of their lives more than those
who missed or stayed in too long.
in fact it is more of less a repeat of '29 when the attitude was the same
in the corporate world: exploit the moment NOW, forget about the rest,
basically lie, cheat and steal, EXPLOIT while the president does the same.
some call dow 5000 and nasdaq 1000, real estate crash and weak
dollar, that the same as 1929.
who knows... the secular up trend is untouched but let's recall
what factors attribute to a depression:
1. lower interest rates, close to 0 rates
2. lower market, bear market
3. lower confidence in the financial system
4. contractionary fiscal policy
until 911 we had all 4 there. after 911 gov. will spend more.
i think Bush ( it's funny how Bushes always get into war situations, burning
Bush, maybe? ) made the right move on creation of Homeland security
department with 170K employees. if that works it will be the only thing that
can protect us from the real disaster. remember this country is all about
consumer. if the consumer is scared and stops consuming, that's it the empire
is gone.
in 29 Roosevelt went with Security Exchange act
in 02 Bush went with Homeland Security act.
you can see the similarity....
both times the empire was/is very vulnerable.
both times it was designed to protect the consumer and boost confidence in the system.
both times it was after run up after peaceful expansion after a war ( WWI vs ColdWarOne )
... both time it was followed by a depression and then a greater war ( this is a speculation ),
then they got Hitler, now we got UBL...
so think about what you want but there is clear similarity between now and 29.
both times America is very vulnerable...
just cross your fingers that terrorists will not come up with something on the level of 911
within the next 2-3 years. we'll probably pull out of this bottom by then.
else who knows... it took thousands of years to demolish empires as history tells us
but recently empires can fall faster... Russia changed in under 10 years... actually took
less than 5 years to fall...
i am bullish on America too, just not short term, thank you.
have a nice weekend everybody.
bilo.
----- Original Message -----
From: Gerald Marisch
To: Ian McVicar ; OmegaList
Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 9:10 AM
Subject: Re: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
"...close the door and turn off the lights?"
Dry humor aside, we as investors, speculators and traders, should OPEN MORE
DOORS and TURN ON MORE LIGHTS.
1929 is ancient history. The investment community is light years ahead of
where it was in 1929. Sophistication, new horizons and global markets
reign. The American financial markets are the envy and prototype of every
world-wide exchange.
Regulations and the strictest enforcement possible is in place as reflected
in my post of 6-6-02, repeated here:
"The following is from Jewish World Today, 6-6-02 - a great day in Freedom's
history.
"On this day in 1934, the New Deal swept through Wall Street, as President
Franklin Roosevelt signed the Securities Exchange Act. With the swoop of his
pen, Roosevelt sanctioned a set of regulations designed to rein in the stock
swapping shenanigans and duplicitous sales tactics that had riddled the New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and helped spark the Great Crash of 1929."
-------------------
1987? Black Monday? A serious event but truly and anomaly to the overall
pulse of the markets. And if you believe Gann "stuff", note that the Dow
recovered 50% almost overnight and went onward and upward from there.
--------------------
Turn off the lights? ALL STADIUM LIGHTS SHOULD BE ON! Long term as the
commercial goes... "I'm Bullish on America". Everyone else should be too!
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ian McVicar" <icm63@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "OmegaList" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, June 07, 2002 00:27
Subject: Repeat of 1929 or 1987 Imminent?
SHOULD WE close the door and turn off the lights????
What you think ?
Ian
PS : I am not assciated with this service, just thought its was interesting
LINK : http://www.jasmts.com
In one of Jim Shepherd's recent newsletters he pointed out that six of the
largest companies in America have now lost over $1.6 trillion of market
capitalization in the last 2 years, an amount equal to $5,000 for every man
woman and child in this country.
During that same time period the subscribers to The Shepherd Investment
Strategist have preserved their wealth while taking advantage of the first
of
several investment recommendations to deal with such an environment
identified
by his model. That first recommendation by Jim Shepherd has now grown
relatively safely by approximately 39% since late 1999 and new
recommendations
are on the way.
As an investor, you know that the temptations put forward by the financial
media enticing you to stay in the stock market have been almost
irresistible.
Jim's recent Special Report just released earlier this month on "The
Psychology
of the Markets" covers this. If nothing else you should take a moment to
read
this short but succinct outline of the pressures investors have been under.
Reading it may save you from making a similar error in the NEAR future. See
it
at this link: Psychology of the Markets.
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