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Maybe we could cross a monkey with a mouse and breed a Super Trader?
Regards, Jack.
----- Original Message -----
From: "krf01" <krf01@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Alexander" <alexander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "Omega-List"
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 1:52 PM
Subject: Re: Monkeys Do It Better
> Wasn't there also a similar experiment where two buttons were presented to
> mice.
> One produced a food pellet every seventh press.
> The other one produced an average of one pellet every seventh press - but
on
> a random basis.
>
> Once the mouse experiences pellets in quick succession from the random
feed,
> it remained with that button, preferring the random success (hope?)
> to the more boring but predictable return.
>
> Not sure about the numbers but you get the drift.
>
> Rgds,
>
> Kim
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Alexander" <alexander@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Bill Wynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx>; <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
> Cc: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 10:49 AM
> Subject: Monkeys Do It Better
>
>
> > Ruth Barrons Rosevelt's book, Exceptional Trading, The Mind Game has an
> > interesting excerpt from a Scientific American article on Right/Left
Brain
> > function which is very similar to trading. (BTW: I highly recommend the
> book!
> > Try the exercises no matter how silly they seem and you may be shocked
at
> what
> > you learn about yourself and your trading.)
> >
> > The experiement: A person sees two lights, one on top of the other and
has
> two
> > buttons, one on top of the other. In each cycle, only one light flashes,
> the
> > top or the bottom (market up, market down?). Press the top button (buy?)
> if you
> > think the top light will flash next. Press the bottom button (sell?) if
> you
> > think the bottom light will flash next.
> >
> > Unkown to the person, the top light flashes 80% of the time but in
random
> > sequence. Obviously the top light flashes much more than the bottom
light
> > but... Invariably people try to figure out a pattern! Even though there
is
> > none. Adopting this left brain strategy, people are only correct 68% of
> the
> > time. Some of the pattern explanations were completely outlandish.
> >
> > Animals on the other hand, with less developed left brain functioning,
> live
> > more in the unstructured present. There is no interperation, distortion
> based
> > on emotions or trying to find deeper meaning. They quickly learn to
press
> the
> > top button all the time for an 80% success rate.
> >
> > Where can I buy that monkey?
> >
> >
> > --- Bill Wynne <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > I agree, lots of that didn't make sense to me, but I think
> > > he's exaggerating to make his point. For me, one of the hardest
> > > things about trading is the waiting between trades, and then
> > > the need for instant action. It's difficult to get into the
> > > flow. In hoop, when a shooter is "in the zone," they say he's
> > > "unconscious." From what I've seen the best traders (assuming
> > > they have a good method/system) share this quality: they just fire
> > > away without a second thought when they get a signal. I wonder
> > > if the qualities that make the best system developers (curiosity,
> > > trying new things, tweaking this and that, ie., they think a lot) are
> > > sometimes different from those of the best traders (don't think, just
do
> > > it). Obviously, you need a good method and the ability to trade it,
> > > so I guess that's why great traders are rare birds.
> > >
> > > BW
> > >
> > > >From: "Gary Fritz" <fritz@xxxxxxxx>
> > > >Reply-To: fritz@xxxxxxxx
> > > >To: "Bill Wynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >CC: Omega-List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Subject: Re: Under financed trader seeking solutions to trigger
pulling
> > > >issue
> > > >Date: Wed, 17 Apr 2002 20:28:57 -0600
> > > >
> > > > > >Toppel even thinks looking at charts focuses too much on the
past.
> > > > > >You should "focus on the here and now and listen to the voice of
> the
> > > > > >market."
> > > > >
> > > > > Hmmm....I didn't look at it that way. I agree it was sort of
> > > > > "be here now," but I took from it that, whatever your method was,
> > > > > you should be focused on executing *this* trade and not letting
> > > > > yourself be effected by what happened on the last trade(s), or
> > > > > the news, or whatever.
> > > >
> > > >Yes, that too, but he says you should focus on the present moment to
> > > >the *exclusion* of all else, including history. Some quotes:
> > > >
> > > >"Charts are total gibberish. They have no validity. They are simply
> > > >history..." p. 19.
> > > >
> > > >"As long as the market is rising, it is safe to buy into it. ... How
> > > >do you know if a market is rising? Simple! Look at the last sale.
> > > >Is it higher or lower than the previous sale? If it is higher, it
> > > >must be going up." (Well, duh.) "Yes, it may go down again, but we
> > > >do not know that. Remember, all we are concerned about is what is
> > > >happening in the present moment. That's all that counts." p. 48.
> > > >
> > > >Buying any arbitrary uptick, with no knowledge of past market path,
> > > >seems suicidal to me. Especially if you have no better exit strategy
> > > >than "sell when it goes down."
> > > >
> > > >He does offer some useful concrete advice, but it's mostly trite
> > > >truisms: don't add to a loser, let profits run, cut losses fast, the
> > > >usual stuff. The meditation &etc suggestions are more helpful IMHO.
> > > >
> > > > > For example, the Zen of OddBall <VBG>....:
> > > > > "If stocks go up then buy;
> > > > > If stocks go down then sell;"
> > > >
> > > >Or the Zen of Will Rogers:
> > > > "Buy stocks that go up.
> > > > If they don't go up, don't buy them."
> > > >
> > > >:-)
> > > >Gary
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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