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> > there is some use to the index. If you are scalping for a point or
> > three in the SP's for example, checking the tiki and premium before
> > entering an order can keep you from "stepping in the bucket", buying
> > right at the time tiki is high and premium is high. You immediately
> > are in the hole. Better to wait a few seconds, let tiki/prem get
> > normal or oversold, then hit the button.
>Jim is right on track with this. When the Futures get high relative to >the
>underlying cash index, it is a signal to begin watching for the >large
>institutional arbitragers to begin program trading. There are >systems This
>is the value of watching the TIKI *at these times*.
At first I thought that made sense, but during a commercial last night I
wrote a system to test the general idea of buying the dips when the tiki was
over sold and vice versa:
{tested on SPH and tiki (data2) 1 minute (mostly) data ('cause Wes said 1
minute was the right time frame for the tiki)}
If C of data2 < -19 Then Buy at Lowest(L,2) limit;
If C of data2 > 19 Then Sell at highest(H,2) limit;
The system and a few variations LOST so much money in a couple of short
tests, that I thought maybe I'll do the opposite: sell the market when it's
oversold AND the tiki is in the hole (and vice versa):
If C of data2 > 19 Then Buy at highest(H,2) + 1 point stop;
If C of data2 < - 19 Then Sell at Lowest(L,2) - 1 point stop;
Doing the "WRONG" thing actually did OK, but test it yourself :).... My
first Broker/Boss in the business told me: "If most people did exactly the
opposite of what they think they should do, they would do OK."
It was good advice.
FWIW: Sometimes it takes less time to write and test a system idea than it
does to write an E-mail about an opinion of an untested idea.
I realize the above systems may not reflect your exact ideas, but hey,
commercials are short during the Olympics.
BW
No claims are made about the systems above, only for comparative
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>From: "Wes Williams" <softexcl@xxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: <softexcl@xxxxxxx>
>To: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Bill Wynne"
><tradewynne@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>CC: <softexcl@xxxxxxx>, <mr_bond@xxxxxxxxx>, <ebonugli@xxxxxxxx>,
><omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>, <rfurse@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: RE: Re[2]: OddBall as a market timing tool
>Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 07:28:02 -0700
>
>
> >
> > Hello Bill,
> >
> > I don't use tiki much, with or without an indicator like RSI. But
> > there is some use to the index. If you are scalping for a point or
> > three in the SP's for example, checking the tiki and premium before
> > entering an order can keep you from "stepping in the bucket", buying
> > right at the time tiki is high and premium is high. You immediately
> > are in the hole. Better to wait a few seconds, let tiki/prem get
> > normal or oversold, then hit the button. Also, I have heard
> > consistent extreme tiki readings are a tip off that institutions are
> > in the market. Don't know for sure myself on that one however.
>
>Jim is right on track with this. When the Futures get high relative to the
>underlying cash index, it is a signal to begin watching for the large
>institutional arbitragers to begin program trading. There are systems This
>is the value of watching the TIKI *at these times*. You generally won't see
>the move reflected in price action for another 30 secs - five minutes.
>
>I'm wondering if anyone has investigated using the $SPINX with OddBall and
>forget the TIKI. If the $ADV is rising but the 1-minute $SPINX indicates
>that the futures are near-term overbought (meaning that arbitragers may
>start driving the price down near-term), take the futures long on a
>breakout
>as the price is going down and reversing. One would get a better entry
>doing
>this. The caution here is that if the cash index is rising sharply, the
>arbitragers are not going to risk going short in the futures for 2-3
>points.
>
>Sincerely,
>Wes Williams
>
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