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To all the Omega-list: Your comments and observations as to how anybody
could get such a high level of performance out of an OddBall type system are
appreciated. I'm a pretty straightforward guy, - - - I only seek the truth.
I have not changed any numbers; all of this is exactly the same as I
received it. I have changed ISP's since October, but this has no bearing on
the facts. I include the email headers so there will be no dispute as to the
origin of these 2 messages.
I appeal to the list members: Can somebody figure this out, I asked Brown
twice but he mysteriously fails to respond . . . notice in the end of the
2nd message that he claims to have "better" OddBall systems; I don't know if
this incredible performance report he sent me is based upon a version he is
not sharing with the Omega-list - - - in any case, since he fails to respond
himself I'm forced to take this issue to the Omega-list and ask list members
for suggestions in determining how a person can get such lofty numbers. I
would think that other list members would agree that anybody who is offering
an .ela type trading system to the public (free or otherwise) should be
always be upfront and if they are furnishing "valid" performance reports on
a free, publicly disclosed system they should always be willing to furnish
the .ela and ALL inputs so others can independently verify the numbers - - -
otherwise, our spirit of cooperation and honesty is lost.
For the record, Omega-list archives show posts by Brown extolling the values
of not holding back, but instead contributing without profit incentive,
improvements in OddBall code for the good of all list members. Several of us
have always followed this path.
Message I sent over 8 days ago:
Mark:
I've been trying to come anywhere NEAR the results of the strategy
performance report on OddBall you emailed me months ago. The 1st line
identifying your performance report states:
MB_SP07_D SP60 min 05/14/1998 - 06/28/2001
I've used your basic OddBall as well as other traders variations in
attempting to get the highest performance possible.
Your report (end of this email) shows Return on account of 2103%
and Total net profit of $816,525
as well as overall profit factor of 2.17
The "best" I can come up with for the same time period, natural hour bars, 0
comm, 0 slippage, natural hour bars, single contract, etc. is only $426,275
with a ROA of 724.03%
As I understand, no other trader working on OddBall type systems can show
any better either.
Your report shows an enormous difference from what I can get from my
computer.
Would you kindly provide the .ela and ALL inputs that you used to generate
this amazing performance report so I (and the list members) can duplicate it
(Hell, I'd be happy to get within at least 90%) . . .
*******************************************************************************************************
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Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2001 18:42:08 -0500
From: Trader1 <trader1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: OddBall system code
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Hello whitehot,
make sure to use natural hour data and notice that the times are
Chicago so you may have to adjust for eastern or whatever other time
zone than central time.
--
Best regards,
Trader1 mailto:trader1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
****************************************************
=MB_OddBall
{start code}
{Data = Either the SPY SAP 500 index tracking stock or the S&P 500
commodity futures contract. Data2 = Advancing issues of the Nyse.}
if time>830 and time <=1500 then begin
Inputs: RL(7), BZ(3), SZ(1),Factor(3), Length(20);
If RateOfChange(Close Data2, RL) > BZ Then Buy;
If RateOfChange(Close Data2, RL) < SZ Then Sell;
end;
{end of code}
*********************************************************************************
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Sun, 21 Oct 2001 10:42:59 -0500
Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2001 10:51:18 -0500
From: Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: whitehot@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Oddball
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Hello whitehot,
win> I'm quite impressed with the simplicity and performance of the
win> oddball S&P system.
i am too.
win> What does your tradestation system report performance summary
win> show for profit factor and other items ?
win> Could you email me a .gif file screen shot ot text file of a
win> summary ?
though ts is a poor platform for this i have attached it.
win> I'm curious if anybody has ever worked on placing additional
win> "filters" on the oddball system to obtain even better results ?
of course. the performance can be improved in certain personality
stages. however can the longevity be improved upon? no i think not.
do i personally have better? yes. not to be arrogant, but i have
much better. the good thing is that you too can work upon improving
it, it can be improved. "IF" you are careful to look for longevity
and not focus exclusively upon profits. am i vague? yes i intend to
be.
win> What ever prompted you to be so generous to reveal this system to
win> the public ? Or is the strategy "power in numbers"; i.e., the more
win> traders placing oddball trades in the same direction the more
win> horsepower you have to influence direction (that would only seem
win> to influence scalp trading) ?
i am not so generous, the publicity does me good in other business
areas of course. i try and not take too much advantage of that, i
just intend to give scamming vendors something to worry about. a
bench mark, why buy this when i can have this for free. can what you
sell me work as well as this? well they may say it does in order to
sell it. but time will tell the truth if it can perform as claimed.
i intend to release progressively better and better systems one after
the other. i have a book underway and some more magazine articles are
scheduled as well as my courses. i am thinking of opening a trading
school if i can find some broker associates to cooperate with.
Have a Great Day, Mark
http://www.markbrown.com
_MB_SP07_D SP60 min 05/14/1998 - 06/28/2001
Performance Summary: All Trades
Total net profit $ 816525.00 Open position P/L $ 4050.00
Gross profit $1513425.00 Gross loss $-696900.00
Total # of trades 631 Percent profitable 57%
Number winning trades 362 Number losing trades 269
Largest winning trade $ 26000.00 Largest losing trade $ -11125.00
Average winning trade $ 4180.73 Average losing trade $ -2590.71
Ratio avg win/avg loss 1.61 Avg trade(win & loss) $ 1294.02
Max consec. winners 11 Max consec. losers 6
Avg # bars in winners 10 Avg # bars in losers 7
Max intraday drawdown $ -38825.00
Profit factor 2.17 Max # contracts held 1
Account size required $ 38825.00 Return on account 2103%
Performance Summary: Long Trades
Total net profit $ 398975.00 Open position P/L $ 0.00
Gross profit $ 767275.00 Gross loss $-368300.00
Total # of trades 316 Percent profitable 59%
Number winning trades 188 Number losing trades 128
Largest winning trade $ 20000.00 Largest losing trade $ -11125.00
Average winning trade $ 4081.25 Average losing trade $ -2877.34
Ratio avg win/avg loss 1.42 Avg trade(win & loss) $ 1262.58
Max consec. winners 14 Max consec. losers 5
Avg # bars in winners 10 Avg # bars in losers 7
Max intraday drawdown $ -35025.00
Profit factor 2.08 Max # contracts held 1
Account size required $ 35025.00 Return on account 1139%
Performance Summary: Short Trades
Total net profit $ 417550.00 Open position P/L $ 4050.00
Gross profit $ 746150.00 Gross loss $-328600.00
Total # of trades 315 Percent profitable 55%
Number winning trades 174 Number losing trades 141
Largest winning trade $ 26000.00 Largest losing trade $ -9375.00
Average winning trade $ 4288.22 Average losing trade $ -2330.50
Ratio avg win/avg loss 1.84 Avg trade(win & loss) $ 1325.56
Max consec. winners 9 Max consec. losers 6
Avg # bars in winners 10 Avg # bars in losers 7
Max intraday drawdown $ -25175.00
Profit factor 2.27 Max # contracts held 1
Account size required $ 25175.00 Return on account 1659%
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