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True random generators exist.
Most of them are based on radioactive decay phenomenon, lava lamps, or
electronic noise from special electronical devices.
These data are tested over a large battery of randomness tests and are available
for sale.
They are used to fine tune Las Vegas slot machines and the like, and scientific
works.
This is the kind of data that I bought to present the Paris conference last
year.
Of course, computer generated random numbers are not realy random, but give an
easy approximation of randomness for non mission critical apps.
Sincerely,
Pierre Orphelin
www.sirtrade.com
TradeStation Technologies representative in France
Safir-X neurofuzzy logic trading system builder
To subscribe to our FREE trading system newsletter:
http://www.sirtrade.com/newsletter.htm
> -----Message d'origine-----
> De : frode aschim [mailto:gruppemail@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Envoyé : samedi 9 février 2002 22:28
> À : Rob Marsh; omega list
> Objet : RE: Random Walk alive and well.
>
>
> Hi Rob,
> Yes - random numbers can look like a normal chart. If you read some of the
> technical analyst books this matter is quite often debated. In my view, that
> doesn't sober me, being a technical analyst. In fact, that fact makes me do
> the opposite.
>
> A note though: If you look in newsgroup you will see numerous examples of
> errors in the random function to Excel. In fact, it is not random.
>
> Having said that, the concept of Randomness is quite an interesting one.
> From what I know there has never been a successful attempt to create 100%
> RANDOM numbers, because simply in order to create something "random" you
> need to relate to something.
>
> BRGDS
> Frode
> xxx.xxxxxxxxxxxx.xxx
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Rob Marsh [mailto:dartingriver@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, February 09, 2002 10:08 PM
> To: omega list
> Subject: Random Walk alive and well.
>
>
> While fiddling about in Excel today, quite by chance I found something quite
> sobering (from a classical chartist's point of view anyway)
>
> If you have a couple of minutes try creating the following simple Excel
> spreadsheet ( to generate a random walk 'price chart')
>
> In cell A2 :
> =rand()
>
> In Cell B2:
> =if(A2<=0.5,1,-1)
>
> In Cell C2:
> =C1+B2
>
> Copy this down (say) 3000 rows and plot a line graph of column C.
>
> Then keep regenerating the random numbers using F9 to get a freshly
> generated random walk each time.
>
> What do you see?
>
> Trend lines, retracements, consolidations, breakouts, Support,
> Resistance, Head and Shoulders, double tops, V-shaped
> bottoms...........etc....etc.
>
> Any pattern you like in fact.
>
> They are all there if you have an eye for them.
>
> AND ALL ON CHARTS THAT ACTUALLY ARE RANDOM WALK!
>
>
>
>
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