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On Sun, 2 Dec 2001 14:04:22 -0800, you wrote:
>Now in my mind, these two different probabilities are measuring the *same
>event*.
Not exactly. The probabilities apply over very large numbers of
events, but NOT over very few events.
Think about this:
If you toss a penny 100 times the probability is that 50 will be heads
and 50 will be tails.
Would you take a bet that after 100 tosses the results will be
EXACTCLY 50 heads?
Don't do it.
As you get towards 100 tosses you are LESS likely to have exactly 50
heads, but more likely that the overall percentage will be CLOSER to
50% heads. IF you tossed 1,000 times the percentage will be even
closer to 50/50 but even less likely to be EXACTLY 500 heads and 500
tails after toss number 1,000.
"Success is the only test of genius" -R.Adm Daniel Gallery 1901-1977
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