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Nurds on the left
Nurds on the right
Religous fanatics
On the air every night
Sayin' the Bible
Tells the story
Makes the details
Sound real gory
'Bout what to do
If the geeks over there
Don't believe in the book
We got over here
----- Original Message -----
From: <sptrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2001 2:00 AM
Subject: Re: Chaos theory
"--" <andy@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>Speaking of shit that doesn't work, the rina system's portfolio analysis
>sucks. Notice that the Sharpe ratio is negative in the report yet the
equity
>curve is positive.
Hmmm.... Your negative Sharpe ratio is RINA'S responsibility?
Your system has a negative Sharpe ratio yet produces a perfectly smooth
equity
curve graphically. I'd be interested in an experienced system developer's
take
on that. I have trouble with that, but my experience with mechanical
systems is
limited. The only mechanical system I developed and licensed to a hedge fund
had
a sharpe ratio of 1.86 (RINA's system portfolio analysis did not suck), yet
its
equity curve was not quite as pretty as yours. Not that I would doubt your
120%
annual return. Any system that is in harmony with EW should do that well,
and it
appears that your system is an interpretation of Mandelbrot's adaptation of
EW's.
> I was a sucker for Elliot Waves, once.
> Have you ever considerd that 2 people can look at the
> same type of market data and arrived at 2 similar, yet different
> conclusions?
Yes, but that is not what I believe happened. Mandelbrot admits awareness
of
Elliott's work. They are not arriving at different conclusions. I believe
Mandelbrot re-labeled and re-packaged Elliott waves. You seem to be
pre-occupied with who invented the term 'fractal' without having much
concern
for its meaning.
> Have you ever considered that Elliot Waves are nothing more than
byproducts /
> side
> effects of a naturally underlying market phenomena and not the Holy Grail?
I think you are making my point with that statement. That point is that
Elliott
waves describe the structure of the markets.
> : 2) Done by Prechter (see attachments)
>
> Where's the beef?
Attachments were removed because of size limitation. Prechter's reply to
the
1999 Scientific American article can be downloaded from
http://traders2traders.com/myfiles/brigitte/credit_missing.zip. The text
file
references the following drawings:
http://traders2traders.com/myfiles/brigitte/figures.gif (Web links
courtesy of
Colin West).
> I know Elliot waves. I know its subjectivity makes it fraught with danger
in
> trading. If you know it, why not create a trading system out of it? After,
> the rules are simple, right? 5 waves up and 3 waves down? In the 5 waves
> up....
Ill-informed description, and EW's are not simple, they are c_o_m_p_l_e_x.
You
cannot use EW Theory like directions on a box of macaroni and cheese. You
need
to develop skills to apply the theory to analysis, and more skills to apply
the
analysis to trading.
> If you're gonna throw in some Fibonacci numbers, you might as well as
throw
> in some Gann angles
I do. I throw in Fibonacci numbers and Gann lines right and left.
>
> Well, I need you prove to me that Elliot waves work.
I don't need to prove anything. Traders who are in the markets to prove
things
do not have a primary goal of making money and their judgement will be
clouded
by excessive emotional baggage. Those who fail to understand that blame
Elliott,
data vendors or RINA for their failure.
> Create a trading system out of it. If it can beat my interpretation of
> Mandelbrot's mapping function (atatched GIF files), I'll give creadence to
> it. Until then, to me, Elliot Waves are nothing more than a side effect/
by
> product/ waste product of a naturally occuring market phenomena Elliot/
> Precther/ Posner don't understand/ comprehend.
There is a public record of my trading performance. Earlier this year, I
won a
national trading contest which had 11,500+ participants. My 30 day return
was
241.98 %, using a non-mechanical Elliott Wave system. I have no incentive to
"convert" you to my trading style. I trade your emotions, which have a
fractal
dimension. The same mental process which compels you to resort to profanity
in a
trading dialog also compels you to buy when I sell and sell when I buy. I
appreciate your participation in the patterns I trade.
BAK
P.S: Please consider any question I may have asked as rhetorical. I have
no
interest in a further dialog with you.
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