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> > If "bad calls for the 90's"
> > refers to the identification of a cycle top of an economic
> > and cultural cycle spanning centuries...
That might be part of it, but the "cycle" bull trend he thought was over
in a five year span (1982-1987) has lasted at least 18 years (until 2000).
So he's off by 300%+ in time on this "cycle" degree swing.
Given the very nature of Elliott, that patterns have similar
tendencies on all degrees of scale, could he be "off" on the
"supercycle" scale by a similar percentage? If so this "supercycle" top
could occur well into the 2100's. Not that I'm saying it will.
>Some might call him a genius. I call him a salesman (as in used car.)
Maybe somewhere in between.
Prechter does deserve some credit. His run was from the
mid-seventies through the 1987 crash. His newsletter
was frequently #1 and he had years with 70%+ winning ratios with
winners 2-3+ times the size of his losers. He won the 1983(?)
US trading championship's options division making 400%+/- (?) in
four months. Many of the other top guys then, in those
real money competitions, were his subscribers. He "called" the 1978
and 1982 lows to within a few ticks months in advance. He called
for a bottom in 1987 in his *1978* book. He called the 1987 top in real
time, and had published a "cycle low" due for the Monday or Tuesday
of the 1987 crash way ahead of the event. I'm sure there's more
that I can't remember or don't know about, but the idea that he just
got lucky is a joke: it'd be like walking into a casino everyday for
10+ years and hitting the jackpot on the slots again and again. Something
was going on there.
Of course Prechter didn't invent Elliott, but he deserves credit
for popularizing him / it. In the "old days" Prechter's newsletter was an
excellent educational tool: not only did he tell where the market was
going (and when), but he showed how he'd figured it out
with very detailed long and short term charts. Interesting note: circa
1988 his newsletter backed off on those very specific short term educational
charts just about the time it got out of sync with the market. I think they
even said it was time to be less concerned with the
near term details, and to get prepared for the *inevitable* longer term
decline. I wonder if that lack of attention to near term detail, and
the perspective that inevitable events were unfolding then, had something to
do with the sharp performance decline.
>Then he started believing his own press about how
>brilliant he was....
I wouldn't put it in those words, but maybe Prechter had
a "5th wave" of his own in 1987.
Prechter had these words in 1978:
"...if it was the Barbarians who finally toppled a rotting Rome,
can it be said that the modern day Barbarians do not have
adequate means and a similar purpose?"
And:
"The trend of man's progress, as the Wave Principle points out,
is ever upward. However, the path of that progress is not a
straight line and never will be unless human nature, which is
one of the laws of nature, is repealed. Ask any archaeologist.
He knows."
I think it applies to individuals and organizations too: no one
stay's the best forever, but that shouldn't diminish their
past contributions.
BW
>From: DH <catapult@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: Chaos theory
>Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2001 22:27:01 -0700
>
> > If "bad calls for the 90's"
> > refers to the identification of a cycle top of an economic
> > and cultural cycle spanning centuries
>
>It doesn't. Since most of us don't live several centuries, that might be
>interesting but hardly useful for trading. Furthermore, until a few
>centuries have passed, we won't know how right or wrong he was about
>that particular long-term call.
>
>Prechter's "bad calls" refer to his consistently telling his newsletter
>subscribers to get short (*right now*, not sometime in the next decade
>or two) during the biggest bull market in history. He had a good run in
>the early 80's. Then he started believing his own press about how
>brilliant he was and went on the mother of all losing streaks which
>lasted far longer than his one and only winning streak.
>
>Personally, I don't understand all the fuss about the guy. He didn't
>invent Elliott wave, Elliott did. Prechter just repackaged it in a
>barely decipherable form and milked it for all it was worth. He made a
>helluva lot more selling books and newsletters than he or any of his
>disciples did in the market if they followed his recommended trades.
>Some might call him a genius. I call him a salesman (as in used car.)
>
>--
> Dennis
>
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