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Mark,
Thanks for the most interesting article. One thing I think of is that in
the past Saddam has moved, cognitively or otherwise, on major malefic
planetary aspects. ( I forget what it was in 1990.) Sunday 8/5 , Pluto is
in exact opposition to Saturn, pretty high on the malefic scale. Meanwhile,
oil prices are sitting just under a downtrend line off the high, having
approximately hit it on thu/fri. Bonds arguably ended corrections to
downtrends last week, and possibly the stock indices as well. It all kinda
fits together for a blow-up.
Wouldn't it be ironic if Saddam tries to get revenge on "W" for his father's
deeds?
Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mark Jurik" <mark@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "'Omega List'" <Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2001 8:10 PM
Subject: Mideast Situation: What impact on oil prices?
>
>
> Events in the mideast are heating up. Attached is a
> clipping from http://www.debka.com/
> that discusses Iraq's recent infiltration into Jordan.
>
> Aside from the socio-political turmoil which we'd all
> like to see resolved peacefully, once CNN gives this
> full coverage, one can only guess the impact on oil futures.
>
> - mark
>
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
28 July: Two days ago, DEBKAfiles weekly intelligence newsletter,
DEBKA-Net-Weekly, in conjunction with the second largest electronic news
site in America, World Net Daily, broke the news of Iraqi commandos in
Jordan.
This is undoubtedly the most important military development in the ten
months of the Palestinian confrontation with Israel.
Friday, July 27, Koenigs World Watch Daily picked up the story verified
from a high-placed source in Amman. That source noted that certain unnamed
forces were at pains to suppress the information.
Saturday, July 28, Koenigs provided a follow-up to the DEBKA-Net-Weekly
story. It cited the same high-placed Jordanian source as disclosing that a
second Iraqi force was now poised on the Jordanian frontier, almost ten
times the number of the first wave of invaders - an estimated 10,000-18,000
commando troops.
Also today, the important US investigative publication Global Strafor
reported from Washington that the US is on the point of launching a military
strike against Iraq.
The original report follows here:
Saddams First War Move
DEBKA-Net-Weeklys military sources learn that Iraqi president Saddam
Hussein has secretly sent troops across the frontier in Jordan, striking the
first spark for igniting a Middle East war.
Iraq military units have been infiltrating neighboring Jordan for the past
10 days. Their mission: to reach the Israeli border, cross the Jordan River
and move into the main Palestinian cities of the West Bank Ramallah,
Jenin, Nablus and Bethlehem and fight alongside the Palestinians.
The invading units are highly trained and well-equipped commandos able to
operate and survive in the field for long periods when cut off from their
headquarters and sources of supply.
They are still in the Jordanian desert. What happens to them over this
coming weekend could determine if a full-scale war erupts.
The first big Iraqi incursion into Jordan began on July 10 and went on for
five days. The king at once proclaimed a supreme state of alert in all
Jordanian army units. Israel poured troops into the Jordan Valley region,
deploying them along the Jordan River and Jordanian frontier in order to
block off the West Bank to Iraqi penetration.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weeklys military sources, the Iraqi forces first
entry point in Jordan was Wadi El Murbah in the central zone of its eastern
border with Iraq. From there, they moved to Wadi Athner. A second
penetration area was Wadi Hawran in southwest Iraq, not far from the points
where the Iraqi, Saudi and Jordanian frontiers meet. The Iraqi forces
advanced through the wadi, bypassing Jabal Unayzah in Iraq and coming out
inside Jordanian territory near the town of Ruwayshid.
DEBKA-Net-Weeklys sources in Amman and Jerusalem report that both Israel
and Jordan view the Iraqi military operation as an act of war against them.
While maintaining official silence, certainly on the Iraqi invasion of
Jordan, both countries consider themselves in a state of war with Iraq.
Jordan did attempt in the first days of the incursion to encircle the Iraqi
intruders and capture them. But some days of intensive effort with airborne
support showed the Jordanian Special Forces that they are no match for 1,000
to 1,500 crack Iraqi commandos. Jordanian fighter planes sent into action
were met by dozens of Iraqi fighters, put up over the penetration regions,
from Al-Baghdadi, the main Iraqi air base in the central region, south of
the town of Arrutba. When SA-6 surface-to-air missile batteries at two
recently reopened Iraqi air bases, H3 in the northwest and H3 in the
northeast, lit up their radar and locked on to the elderly Jordanian
aircraft, lacking electronic counter-measures, they turned tail without
snapping a single reconnaissance photo.
Jordan sent desert reconnaissance patrols and intelligence units into Iraq
to bring back information on supply lines and reinforcements. What they
found sounded even louder alarm bells in Amman: The elite Hummarabi division
of the Republican Guard, equipped with T-72 tanks, was now in position
between the Jordanian border and the two H bases. They also learned that the
Iraqi army had sent at least four armored infantry brigades into the area.
Equally troubling, at the beginning of the week, the Iraqi force already in
Jordan was sighted moving west, several groups having reached the sand dunes
and wadis known as Abu Haffrah, about 80 km (50 miles) inside Jordanian
territory.
King Abdullah decided to take command of the Jordanian forces still chasing
the Iraqis intruders. That is why he looked so worried and tired as though
he had not slept for nights in his public appearances in Amman in the past
week. He also appeared in combat fatigues.
DEBKA-Net-Weeklys military sources report that the longer the king, a
career officer before he ascended the throne, spent out in the field in
eastern Jordan, the more anxious he became. He realized that overcoming the
Iraqi force already inside the kingdom would not end his worries. There was
still the next stage of Saddams plan to face up to, as indicated in the
latest intelligence reports on his desk. Iraq had a second wave of troops
poised ready to cross into Jordan. Furthermore, Saddam Hussein had secretly
appointed his eldest son, Qusay, supreme commander of what the Iraqi
president was now describing as the Iraqi-Jordanian-Israeli front.
At a military ceremony attended by top Iraqi generals, Saddam, the reports
said, had sworn to spare neither effort nor money to provide Qusay with any
reinforcements he might request.
Qusay is said to have set up his headquarters at al-Bagdad air force base,
to the rear of the Iraqi forces deployed between the H bases and the
Jordanian border.
Jordanian intelligence also reported a large concentration of Iraqi forces
on the main roads leading from Iraq to Damascus and from Iraq to the Golan
Heights.
The Jordanian king was forced to realize that he was not dealing merely with
a small-scale invasion of mobile Iraqi forces, but with preparations by his
eastern neighbor for war on a regional scale, far beyond the scope of the
Jordanian army on its own.
What the intelligence reports omitted to mention was whether Saddam
Husseins move had been coordinated with either - or both - Palestinian
Authority chairman Yasser Arafat and Syrian president Bashar Assad.
DEBKA-Weekly-Net sources in Jerusalem and Washington report that at the
beginning of the week, King Abdullah put his overseas connections to the
test. He asked President George Bush for American intervention against the
Iraqi threat. He also turned to Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon to
invoke the secret Israeli-Jordanian defense pact signed by the late King
Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin that obliges Israel to act against military or
terrorist elements endangering the existence of the Kingdom of Jordan or the
Hashemite throne.
Several of DEBKA-Net-Weeklys sources report that the ways in which the pact
may be implemented are under discussion between Israel and Jordan in
consultation with Washington, which has its own plans for building up the
military pressure on Saddam Hussein.
A top Israeli official said in answer to a question from DEBKA-Net-Weekly:
We may be back in the 1991 Gulf War, when the administration of Bush Sr.
depended heavily on an Arab coalition and demanded that Israeli stand aside.
We were therefore prevented from fighting back against the Scud missiles
falling on Tel Aviv.
Now, too, Sharon has no wish to get involved in American regional
considerations. Our only interest is to stop Iraqi forces from reaching the
West Bank and linking up with the Palestinians. Those words are the key to
Sharons statement Thursday, July 26, to a group of Likud members in Ariel:
At the end of the road, he said, there are American interests. They want
to step up their campaign against Iraq and for this they need the backing of
Arab states. They dont want us (in the way), and I take this as a warning
signal.
These words are completely untypical. Sharon never says a word that is not
upbeat when he refers to his relations with the Bush administration.
The coming weekend will be crucial in this regard.
The Jordanian-Iraqi clashes, if they continue, could be the first military
step on the road to a Middle East war without the world even noticing.
DEBKA-Net-WeeklysMiddle East experts point out that if even a small number
of Iraqi commandos already in Jordan actually reach the West Bank,
Abdullahs situation will become complicated. He cannot interfere without
being branded a collaborator with the Jewish state. But letting Saddam get
away with the move and allowing Iraqi troops to cross the Jordan River would
effectively reduce him to Saddams puppet.
Qusays appointment as supreme commander of the new front is another
embarrassment. Qusay hates the Hashemites and would enjoy humiliating
Abdullah. Forcing Abdullah to receive him as commander of Iraqs invading
force and cooperate with him would be tantamount to making the king bend the
knee.
Saddam, meanwhile, appears to be in a win-win situation. He is making good
on his promises to a series of PLO delegations visiting Baghdad in the last
10 months to open a second front against Israel to aid the Palestinian
battle against Israel. This would show up the rest of the Arab world as
shirking their sacred duty towards the Palestinian struggle.
He would also appear in the heroic light of sending an Arab army to fight
Israeli head-on, instead of hiding behind long-range missiles.
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