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ASCtrend may work for you on the markets you are trading, however the big
red flag for me is the fact that it can't stand up to the S&P emini
It looks like a system that makes good money then gives it all back, has a
drawdown of 3/4 of the profit, and has too many looses in a row.
They say they allow $50 costs per trade although it's not very clear what
their doing in the trade by trade report.
They say "If Profit Factor > 1.5, it is a tradable system"
So by their own admission the Emini S&P day trade system has not been
tradable for the last 15 months.
Emini S&P Day Trade
3/31/00 to 6/22/01
Gross Profit (P) $115,212
Gross Loss (L) ($102,861)
Total Net Profit $12,351
Winning Rate 44.82%
Avg. Trade $26
Max Draw Down $9036.73
Profit Factor 1.12
Consecutive Losing Trades 10
Neville
-----Original Message-----
From: Alex <fsx247@xxxxxxxxx>
To: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, June 26, 2001 11:36
Subject: Re: AscTrend results - looks great
>At 08:57 PM 6/23/01 -0500, you wrote:
>>Hello Justin,
>>
>>Saturday, June 23, 2001, 8:19:40 PM, you wrote:
>>
>>
>>yea not bad for a scam
>>
>>JZ> http://www.wintick.com/6_0/backtesting.asp
>>JZ> impresive results
>>
>
>I'd be more inclined to agree with you as long as they
>didn't offer it as a system which could be BACKTESTED
>but only as an indicator instead (and it has often
>been discussed in this list that what might look great
>on screen, could generate losses in an objective
>backtest with TS).
>
>But now they're finally offering it as a SYSTEM and
>NOT AS AN INDICATOR and they seem to imply (
>http://www.wintick.com/6_0/backtesting.asp ) that
>they're executing REAL ORDERS with it.
>
>There's a guy with a Website (
>http://www.knology.net/~ajadams/ajad_software.htm -
>was unavailable when I just tried it, maybe
>temp?)claiming that he's making money with ASCTrend.
>
>Other than Mark Brown's blanket statement dismissing
>it as "scam", someone might have to offer a better
>researched bashing :-) I have none to offer myself,
>but I'm including the comments that I've collected
>from many public Internet forums about ASCTrend:
>
>=================================================
>I've tested eAscTrend and was disappointed. The reason
>whas as follows: the system waits until a bar is
>completed before deciding to signal a buy or sell
>signal (color). So far so good. However from that
>moment on it assumes the (already passed) opening
>price of that bar as the buying or selling price. It
>was easy to figure out that in almost all cases this
>was the reason of their stellar results claimed, but
>in practice I hardly would make money with the system.
>
>I tried to discuss this observation several times with
>the company, but never got a reply. I don't look into
>it anymore.
>====
>I had eAsctrend 5 professional that had to be
>optimized to be a winning system. In real time trading
>it would always fall apart and would be a losing
>system. Perhaps they improved on the system now but,
>when I had it a few months ago, I couldn't make money
>with it in the S&Ps.
>====
>I used it. The eAsctrend is a black box, unlike the
>older Tradestation version.
>It is very good when you know how to trade anyway
>[stops, risk reward etc..]. You need the expensive
>versions if you don't know enough about trading,
>because the software will make more decisions for you.
>
>The back testing is 'real' and also not. I agree with
>earlier poster that they are mistakes on the trades
>shown. But like he says himself, the track record is
>good enough to make nice profits with their system.
>
>But it is rather easy to try it for yourself. In my
>opinion it is one of the few affordable system which
>really works out there. Actually they gave me
>inspiration to build my own. That's what I do know,
>building systems and have a broker trading them for
>customers and sharing profits.
>====
>I was impressed with their presentation and was very
>interested in their product. After making a number of
>inquiries, however, I'm afraid that I'm leaning toward
>putting it into the too-good-to-be-true category.
>Firstly, I have found no one who can present an actual
>account record. I have asked the company and a broker
>who promotes it and both could offer nothing.
>Secondly, I am suspicious of the "backtesting" results
>on their website.
>
>I checked both the S&P and Nasdaq results--which they
>show on a trade by trade basis. They use a trailing
>stop that captures 95% of their profits after reaching
>various floors. Many of the outsize returns that they
>show would actually have been stopped out because of
>this, however. An example of this can be found looking
>at the S&P on 3/20. This is the day the Fed eased and
>the market plummeted from 1190 to close at 1152.
>
>Their 5th trade shows a sale at 1175 and holding it
>until the end of the day. A tidy gain of $5,650. Since
>they use half hour bars, it isn't apparent that the
>market fell quickly to 1163 but then backed up to
>almost 1170 around 3:25 EST. My understanding of their
>system (and I called them to confirm) is that this
>would have set off their stop, and reduced their
>profit to around 6 points instead of the reported 23.
>
>Other, similar changes caused my tally of their
>results to vary significantly from theirs.
>
>Now make no mistake about it, even if the results
>amounted to only half of what they say, they would
>still be great! I would love to have my suspicions
>disproved and find that its a great system.
>====
>Didn't actually trade it but about two years ago my
>sources in the underground told me what it was.
>Nothing but stochastics indicators or simple variants
>thereof with several different periods devilishly
>bundled up in a DLL so that no one could tell. I
>really did a ROTFLMAO on learning this.
>
>So you'd pay a grand or so for some stochastics
>indicators. The charts are really pretty though.
>It's the eye candy that sells the system.
>====
>ASCTrend isn't simply stochastics or simply a
>Parabolic SAR method. It however will give signals
>similar to those methods from time to time. After all,
>it's a breakout indicator.......and most breakout
>ndicators whether they be moving averages, MACD, DMI,
>CCI...whatever......give signals at roughly the same
>place and time....
>
>ASCTrend works better as a breakout indicator in the
>aspects of minimizing false breakout signals and
>showing stop placements that keep a trader in a trend
>trade for the big gain.
>
>The ASCTrend philosophy of first recognizing the
>beginning of a trend, signaling the entry, then
>setting trailing stop that keep you onboard is valid.
>====
>Check out the article in Club 3000 (97.10) by Millard
>Longman re: an ASCTrend copycat for TS. Complete
>with codefor indicator, system and paint bar. Have
>fun.
>====
>Don't know about R&W or Recurrence, but I'm a
>"permanent" ASCTrend user (one of the first 10 or so
>back in June of 1995).
>
>ASCTrend is a collection of 4 related TREND INDICATORS
>for TradeStation/SuperCharts. Because they are
>indicators* {i.e., NOT systems} there is no way for me
>to give you "actual performance"...
>
>Reading some of the replies to this post, I seriously
>doubt the comments made regarding Stochastics, etc.
>As I recall, John Wang, the author of ASCTrend (and of
>George Angell's SpyGlass, and others) is a Ph.D. in
>(mathematics?) and works as a theoretical athematician
>for a think tank firm in the (SF) Bay Area. I do know
>that John is Chinese and the fact that English is not
>his native language routinely shows in his
>documentation and marketing stuff. Nevertheless, I
>think he's one VERY smart cookie.
>
>I, on the other hand, am on the opposite end of the
>scale from being a Ph.D. mathematician... I seem to
>recall words like "multiple regression" in his
>description of how ASCTrend does it's stuff...
>
>Bottom Line: It works. For me, anyway. It is one of
>several indicators that I use trading 16 futures
>markets and a couple spreads. ASCTrend is uncanny at
>identifying trend direction and resistance levels for
>me. It's not *always* right, but it *usually* is, and
>I've grown to depend on it... "wouldn't leave home
>without it"
>=================================================
>
>Alex.
>
>
>
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