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joach@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
<.... Do any of you have any
information as to how to do this calcuation...???? ....>
One simple way is to simply subtract the current Fed Funds
rate from the deferred Eurodollar rate. The difference before
yesterday reflected that the Federal Reserve was already well
behind the markets in pricing money, and that it would be
inevitable that they need to catch up.
The Fed is the tail, the market is the dog doing the wagging..
But the affect and attention afforded their announcements
usually makes it appear otherwise. That's why, IMHO,
they owe the public and the stock market more
respect than to leverage their drama against participants'
positions--which is the original subject of this thread--not
whether we can succeed with our systems to predict
market turns.
This market was due for a turn anyway, a message that seems
totally lost on most of the responses to my rail against the Fed.
My objection is simply the timing, seemingly purposeful to
target the stock market, is an abuse of power, an accusation
I acknowledge that the Fed continues to deny.
Whether you use cycle analysis, wave counts, sentiment or
systems to predict that a turn was due was never meant to
be the point of this thread. But probably best we all turn
back to that anyway as this subject seems well exhausted and
less appropriate for this list anyway.
Thanks for all who followed it and contributed...
Scheier
> This sort of fits in with this thread...... It's from TradingMarkets.com
> Maybe someone can explain the content note.... Maybe the interest rate hikes
> can be forcast............
> ............from TradingMarkets.com..........
>
> "While all major media outlets
> are touting the Fed's rate cut as a "surprise," the federal
> funds futures contract traded at the Chicago Board of Trade
> has clearly been indicating expectations of a 50 basis-point
> cut, pricing in a nearly 100% chance of such an occurrence by
> the end of the month, the time of the Fed's regularly
> scheduled FOMC meeting on interest rate policy.
>
> Where do we go from here? A look at this valuable predictor
> of the Fed's policy provides some interesting clues. This
> morning, the February contract (FFG1) is now pricing in an
> 84% chance that the Fed will cut an additional 50 basis
> points at its January meeting.
> ................................................
>
> Further down the road, the June contract is currently showing
> a 76% chance of an additional 50 basis point cut, implying
> that by this summer the federal funds interest rates will
> stand at 5%, down from its current level of 6%. "
>
> ....... end of quote.....
>
> I have attatched a gif of the FundRate Futures........ Do any of you have any
> information as to how to do this calcuation...???? This just be one of the
> few clues that are readily available ...... without getting into somebody's
> proprietary trading system.
>
> John
>
> "John T. Nelson" wrote:
>
> > Here we don't agree...
> >
> > By "stable prices" I don't think
> > the Fed had specifically stock prices in mind. I think
> > this refers to costs in labour, commodities, goods and
> > so forth.
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> [Image]
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