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John Nelson wrote:
>
> An interesting question... solution left to the reader :-)...
Well I had no response to my question, other than yours John. Either it
was deemed too stupid a question to bother with, or nobody knew the
answer, or those who knew the answer preferred not to talk about it. I
have not studied much about non-linear pricing or reflexivity, fractal
dimension etc. Those discussions usually include comments about Brownian
Motion and Cigar smoke patterns as well. I'm not qualified to discuss
the topic. It just seems that one would need clear definitions for
random and non-random price movement, and a way to identify each class
of price movement, before they could be subjected to various tests.
Also, my example included a fundamental reference, and that alone was
probably sufficient for the list to ignore it. :-)
Regards,
Monte
>
> - John
>
> On Mon, 18 Dec 2000, Monte C. Smith wrote:
> >
> > John Nelson wrote:
> > >
> > > This posting provides some food for thought. If one could devise a
> > > function which accurately simulates the random and non-random aspects of
> > > markets using convenient data measures (price, volume, volatility) then it
> > > would be possible to train a neural net using other than historical data.
> > <snip>
> >
> > How do you separate the random from the non-random? And, if a lot of
> > sellers come in at the end of the day in a bullish market and economy,
> > say, because a long holiday weekend is coming and they don't want to go
> > home long...then is that random or non-random? It might be random
> > because the reason they are selling has nothing to do with the market or
> > the economy,etc, but it might be non-random because the same selling
> > occurs ahead of every long holiday weekend, making it predictable. (If
> > predictability is an element by which non-randomity is defined).
> >
> > Regards,
> > Monte
> >
>
> __________________________________________________________
>
> John T. Nelson | John's Trading Journal
> trader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx | http://trader.computation.org/
> __________________________________________________________
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