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I had a not so nice arguement with PO about 9 months
ago on this very issue.
simply put - if neural net can accurately predict
the future all the time, then it is technically
proving the concept of "P=NP" (in layman's term
you can crack any high security code in no time
and you can tell with 100% accuracy about tomorrow's
weather. :) )
thus, if neural net is good at something, it will
be at best par to any other tools available and
the result will at most be "quite" accurate most
of the time and definitely screw up at the worst
time :)
it seems to me most people use NN the wrong way
assuming the NN will do everything for them ...
just thinking that the time it will take to train
and retrain NN is about the same as doing other
types of analysis anyway, I prefer doing the other
ways :)
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Lawrence Chan http://www.tickquest.com
Innovative Analytical Software for Trading Professionals
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