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Re: Cycle indicators


  • To: "Noel Falzon" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: Cycle indicators
  • From: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 06:52:26 -0700
  • In-reply-to: <200010140107.SAA10596@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

I have used Bressert's DoubleStochastic (the free version) for several
years, on and off.  Recently I decided to try his suite of indicators for
the 30 day trial which included 30 days of his chart analysis based on those
indicators.

So far I've found them useful and the daily analysis very helpful in
understanding how to use them.

Here's why I like Walter's approach:
1. he used multiple time frames (usually weekly, daily, 102, 54, 29 and 7
minute charts (I don't know why those intervals.)
2. He only trades with the trend as defined by the next higher level
timeframe.
3.  He uses cycles to look for trades that are likely to be timely. (i.e.,
buy dips in bull markets, sell rallies in bears.)
4.  He uses Fib retracements/targets but in moderation.  (His TradeStation
Fib indicators are handy and you could pay some vendors a lot just for
those.)


Here are some questions/reservations:
1.  Walter's cycle credentials go way back, mine don't.  But I'm not sure I
like his use of 18 bar cycles, length 10 Stochastic regardless of timeframe
on the SP's.  When I do the old fashioned process of counting of
detrended-centered-moving-averages I usually get different average cycle
lengths.  My counts have been consistently coming in at closer to 14-15.

2.  He tends to subscribe to the notion that cycles are multiples of
two--i.e., a 20 bars cycle contains two 10 bar cycles.  I don't and prefer
to determine cycles at each timeframe independently.  (All that may be
academic as cycles tend to vary so much in length).

3.  In his indicator package he includes a spectral analysis routine that
finds the dominant cycle (similar to Stan Ehler's approach I think).  I
don't use it--yet at least-- and Walter doesn't seem to either.  But like
the Fib tools, you could pay much more just for them.

In summary--
You can learn a lot form Bressert's website (articles, free indicators).
The indicator package is underpriced relative to others out there.
The indicator package is overpriced relative to what Walter gives away free.
The 30 day trial is very much worth the price of the indicators.  His daily
analysis is efficient, simple and based on sound trading principles.  Even
if you never use his indicators, the articles and daily analysis is an
excellent training vehicle.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Noel Falzon" <noelf@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2000 9:25 AM
Subject: Cycle indicators


> Does anyone have any thoughts on the
> Indicators being sold on these sites,
>
> Certainly looks impressive.
>
> Especially the ` Kelly's Cycle Identifier`.
>
> http://www.trendpro.com/products/floor_trader/
>
>
http://www.walterbressert.com/Pages/ProfitTrader/Presentation/Action/SPIDay_
> 000524/7_Min_frame.htm
>
> Many thanks
>
> Noel
>
>
>