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RE: Neural Networks for trading



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Bob:

I'm responding to the list with this, having seen your posting about 
intending it to be a private conversation. My feeling is this thread might 
be beneficial for the list membership.

I second Mark's comments about Fuzzy Logic. Interestingly, although it was 
developed in this country in the '60's (Lotfi Zadeh at UC Berkeley), it has 
only started to be popular here in the recent past. However, the Japanese 
have exploited the concepts quite successfully: Auto-focus cameras, smart 
washing machines and other household appliances, the automatic Sendai 
subway system.

I know of no commercially available packages that use these concepts other 
than Pierre's, and I've never been able to get past his too-busy web page 
and Franglais to proceed (unquestionably, one of my countless personal 
failings).

However, I do use FL in my own proprietary trading system. The system is 
written in C++ and there is freeware C++ source code available (although 
I've written my own routines for FL).

The advantages of FL for decision making are robustness, 
ease-of-implementation of complex systems, remarkable insensitivity to 
noise and imprecision. Also, the ability to produce non-linear decision 
surfaces without extraordinary mathematics is very nice. I also calculate 
Fuzzy Trends, which I've only seen a couple of recent papers on.

Anyone interested in learning more about FL in general gets the following 
recommendation:

"The Fuzzy Future. From Society and Science to Heaven in a Chip," Bart 
Kosko, Random House, 1999. ISBN 0-609-60446-5. Kosko is one of the gurus of 
FL (he's a EE prof at USC), but this book is intended for a popular 
audience. Available at the usual places, such as:

http://www.amazon.com/

and

http://www.booksamillion.com/

BTW, Booksmillion is a discount bookseller that I use frequently and recommend.

Allan

At 10:36 AM 8/18/2000, Bob Fulks wrote:
>At 12:08 AM -0600 8/13/00, Mark Jurik wrote:
> > >>
> >however i wholeheartedly endorse fuzzy logic concepts. too bad there are no
> >clean FL trading products out there. FL is an extremely valuable tool.
> ><<
> >
> >Have you played with SAFIR-X by Jewelsoft?  ( http://www.sirtrade.com )
>
>Hi Mark:
>
>I see you have moved to Colorado. Maybe you were tired of the California 
>congestion... For five years I "commuted" to San Jose (from Boston) every 
>two weeks and got pretty tire of the congestion.
>
>Your comment above about Pierre's product has just about tempted me to 
>spend some time playing with his demo version. It has been on my list of 
>things to look at for some time.
>
>I wondered if you have looked at it and if you have found it useful in 
>developing trading systems. On course Pierre thinks it is wonderful but I 
>thought I would try to get a less biased opinion before investing time in it.
>
>Thanks for any input you can give me. It will remain confidential.
>
>Bob
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