|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
: And so the debate rages on, year after year, system after system, without
anyone going to the heart of the matter, to wit: Why does the system work
in one time period and not in another? Why, gentlemen? The question is not
whether, but WHY?
Markets changes. Something fundamental changes it and that changes the
technical aspects of the markets. It is my opinion that the stealth bear
market of 1994 changed the markets such that you cannot compare the period
after (from end of 1994/early 1995 to perhaps 1Q 2000) with the period
before. Just look at the daily chart. Another example might be the bond
market today. After the Treasury Dept. announce a buyback of their debt, the
whole bond market has changed significantly. What worked before (counter
trend trading) is not working today. But it is too soon to tell if that is
the case - that why I used "might". As for the stock markets, perhaps this
melt up and melt down earlier this year portends a change in the markets but
IMO it is also too soon to tell.
: Stochastics based systems are money losing propositions? Is that the end
of the study? Is that the depth of one's conclusions? Do I have to ask...
WHY don't they work?
Not necessarily the case. I've been making money using an stochastic
oscilator based system for several years now. That should be enough to
refute the arguement (the classic black swan arguement : to refute the
arguement that all swans are white, the sighting of one black swan is enough
to dispel that arguement. Another example of a black swan arguement is the
Crash of '87. Previous to that, it was thought that a 6 sigma event was
impossible. Well, the Crash of '87 was a 12 sigma event.) . Whether it makes
money in the future remains to be seen. :-)
|