Re: You got game? (Obviously most of you don't!)

[Frank Munouz <fmunouz@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Gerald:

Nobody really knows for sure what drives the market.  It could be a single
event or a combination of things.  Getting to the bottom of what actually is
the cause can take considerable time and money and by the time you even got
close, it would be too late and you still may never know.

System traders seek to find correlations, essentially, between their system
and the market.  They know from back testing that historically system profit
moves with the market.  They don't know why it works or even care all they
know is that it works.

This is my point.

We don't know why such a seemingly abstract correlation between basketball
and the market would work but backtesting tells us that it does.  So who
cares what the reasons are.  We can never know what all the reasons are and
weather or not they're valid.  The bottom line is statistically, it has
shown to work and that's all we traders can really know.

PS.  If I were in your shoes, I wouldn't be bashing the idea that seemingly
unrealted events can't affect one another, I would be skeptical of the
methods that produced the result to being with.


------Original Message------
From: gm@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Gerald Marisch)
To: "Frank Munouz" <fmunouz@xxxxxxxxxx>, <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: May 30, 2000 7:21:01 PM GMT
Subject: Re: You got game?  (Obviously most of you don't!)


Frank:

While I appreciate the sentiment, I find it questionable that any market
reacts to unrelated events. Sure its interesting, and can be the subject of
casual conversation over beers.

But perhaps those that trust is such superstition should rethink and find
value in that 2+2 has always equaled 4 since Cain slew Able.

If the numbers aren't there - for whatever reason - there is no profit.

Just a thought.......


----- Original Message -----
From: "Frank Munouz" <fmunouz@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2000 1:46 PM
Subject: You got game? (Obviously most of you don't!)


> LET ME TELL YOU THIS.  CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION BUT WHO THE
HELL
> CARES!  IF THERE'S A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION BETWEEN TWO
> MARKETS THEN IT'S VALID TO TRADE IT, REGARDLESS OF WEATHER OR NOT THE
REASON
> FOR THE TREND IS UNDERSTOOD.
>
> THE WINNING PERCENTAGE OF LAKERS WINS VS PORTLAND INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
> OVER THE WEEKEND.
>
> AND THE NASDAQ IS UP A NEAR RECORD 203 PTS AS OF 1:33 CST.
>
> !!!!GO LAKERS!!!!
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Scaletrade@xxxxxxx
> To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: May 30, 2000 5:39:57 AM GMT
> Subject: Re: You got game?
>
>
> In a message dated 05/27/2000 9:16:03 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
> omega-digest-request@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> > Too bad though, if one market would lead another by about 5 ,10 or 30
> >  minutes consistently we could all be rich.
>
> A funny thing happened to me a year ago when I had just signed up for my
> realtime futures quotes...
>
> I had the S & P quotes going in one window, and right below it the Dow
Jones
> Futures.  I noticed over a period of a few days that the Dow contract
> consistently made similiar large moves to the S & P, only approximately 10
> minutes later.  I watched this for awhile, and finally got up my courage
to
> place the trade...
>
> Well, I was filled quite a bit worse than I expected, and as I watched the
> chart, I found that the dow never traded up to my fill until, guess what,
> about 10 minutes had elapsed...
>
> And maybe you've guessed it...my new miracle system happened because my
data
> provider was erroneously giving me 10 minute delayed data on the CBOT, and
> real time quotes on the CME.  Alas.
>
> Of course I got out of the trade as soon as I realized, with a loss equal
to
> about one month of realtime data, and my vendor gave me a free month worth
> of
> service to compensate.  All in all what I lost (besides my pride!) was
only
> the best system I've ever stumbled upon.  Easy come, easy go...
>
> Larry
>
>