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Gerrit Jacobsen wrote:
> Shawn,
>
> > I guess being a Fund Manager
> > has made me all fashioned in seeking simplicity and direct
> > responses.
>
> This statement made me rather curious about you and I hit your internet site. Judging from that I gather that you are quite a nice philosophical chap. Looking at the details and linguistic extravagances of your articles however I am beginning to wonder whether your above statement means that you do see those qualities inside you or whether you are just seeking them.
>
> According to your ambitions I put the purpose of my posting in plain words:
>
> > Since I dont have enough time myself I am looking for some
> > people who are interested to port tickscape to TS2K (or some
> > other platform).
>
>
Hi Jacobsen,
First of all I never did see the word "port tickscape to TS2K" in your original message. That said let me point out that one becomes what one reads. I grew up speaking 3 different languages from birth (English, German and French) and that might show in my writing. Neither do I view myself as a phylospher of any sort. I strive to be a practical phylosopher.
That paper you are refering to was one of my first. My background stems from the Computer Industry (Masters in Informatiks). Of all the Internet Companies I had been involved in, none ever turned a profit. Mind you this paper was as early as January 1998. I came up with the heuristic concept that wallstreet valued Internet companies upon hits and not earnings. It took for granted that hits would be translated into advertisement and further into money. Through this methodology the FLAW was exploded that Hits do not necessary mean earnings. I drew up a chart of hits of various internet companies against their market pricing. I took hits to mean earnings. As long as wall street valued it that way.
I recommended the Search Engines ( highest hits), NetworkSolutions ( Domain Registration) , (two E-Commerce sites) to my then few foreign clients (Mainly German). Mind you the rest of the analysts were seeking to explain how neither of these Companies had earned a dime. To me they had already earned hits. It was very curious as I got a chart similar to what Soros drew up in his Alchemy of Finance.
Those customers were the very same ones who helped me launch my Fund two years later. Towards August 1999 Internet Companies began being beaten as they reported earnings. It seemed the long held flaw was being exposed and I recommended getting out of all them. I even tried to sell some short giving back about 1/4 of what I had made. I missed the run from August 1999 till February 2000. However that original insight gave me an edge.
That methodology might be far fetched to you but as long as it gives me an edge that is all I care about. No matter what you do you need an edge. As long as you have it you are a step ahead. At the current point I could state that as the rise in Internet stocks was reflexive in nature we are in a self defeating vicious cycle. I am short Internet stocks (making up the Dow Jones Internet Services Index and Dow Jones Comerce Index) without discrimination. While others wait for a bottom, I am sitting through rallies and pyraminding more on the short side. Many will go burst. Why would I have such a conviction. I am simply operating under the hypothesis that the underlying variable has changed.
REMEMBER I WOULD BE WRONG. I do not claim to have the right answers at all. I am however willing to put my money behind my thinking.
On a final note, during my Univesity years I found a trick to cheat my class mates, or so I thought. I would read ahead into material two semesters ahead. I figured If I knew something they didn't know I had an edge. Coming to the Financial Markets, I discovered to my amazement everyone was doing the same thing. They had almost the same chain of thought. Very few had original ideas. All the old timers recommended the same books. Same TA's etc. When I came across Soros, he struck me with a revelation. Just like Bohr the hungarian who porported Bohr Mathematics as opposed to Euclidean Geometry, Soros advocated formulating hypothesis. The only paradox to it was you had to seek this frame of thought.
It involved leaving the land of the living, seeking cybernetic thought and Chaos theory.
PS: If you find my wording or writing to abstract, then it is simply not for you. "Strength in numbers is the delight of the timid, the valiant in spirit glorify in fighting alone". I do not need any following. As a chaologist, I am always seeing systems that would expose the nature of Markets. That is why I approached you regarding your tickscape software. However your response of "read between the lines again shawn" simply expressed to me "if you can't understand what I wrote dont bother me shawn". I guess I couldn't so I will not bother you.
Wish you All the Best
Shawn
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Ricercar Fund /SA "Quarendo Invenietis"
http://www.RicercarFund.com
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"It is not how right or wrong you are that matters, but how much money you make when right and how much you do not lose when wrong." ... George Soros
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