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Re: Math of Trading



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The Omega Man,

please read my post again - check out the simple calculation
on expected value - its stat101 - which is the explaination of what
my opinion is based on.

the reason why we have to agree on something, especially the definition,
is that there will be no fruitful discussion if everybody is talking about
different things :)

once we agreed on the labelling (e.g. like past 2 days on "jump"
and "trend") - then we can go in to the details, civilized way on
scientific discussion - as I always have done in this list, except when
blasting OR about bugs in TS :)

What Bob said works for those who can handle the emotional swing.
90% who use the same do not expect the emotional "torture" and
when the position is going against them, they most likely "react" to the
situation emotionally, then of course lose money for nothing, which
then add even more stress => a calm and logical mind is gone ...
the basic need for discretionary trader to survive.

I did not try to go in details about FLOW trading, which is advantageous
for locals to do. To explain it further, it is to the contrary of what Bob
or
you think. It is very profitable to take 1 or 2 pts at a time from the sp
without riding as long as you are in the pit. I mentioned that in the
previous post and expect normal individual can already figure out why
as almost none transaction cost and no slippage was mentioned.

Since it is advantageous for locals to do, then can that be done by people
outside? yes. get a direct lease line to the pit, have a local execute your
trades for you and lease a sit. Then you can do the same like a local.
Fast access is the key.

In summary I was not shooting down Bob, I tried to further his arguement
that is it necessary to ride ... based on his assumption - and used
very simple scenerio to show whether one should ride a move or take
the profit and run.

The conclusion is an interesting one because it proves
that one can ride a trade, or take profit and run, and both cases can win
about the same. Which implies the mkt can allow different personalities
to trade and all still profitable. Thus, it boils down to a person's
personality and temperment on choosing the style. One cannot adopt
a style of trading that does not fit his/her personality!

For my own trading, it is mechanical, not something TS can do,
it is not something TW can do. I am in the mkt very short time
period - less that 10%, and for some rare occasion will hang
in whole day like friday. options are used in the mechanical model
for capturing multiple days moves.

Normal people cannot afford what I use, period. I did walk thru
what Bob is going thru, I understand. Was a local in Cda trading
stock options, stocks, make markets, etc. Did research in
computer science when I was young ... I did discretionary trades
before and no longer do so.

Not everybody can daytrade - period. Do not lure the whole world
into that. Some people just make as much doing EOD
trading, some others do great doing killer trades a few times a year.
Respect that there is not just one single truth out there when
trading is the topic.

To further this discussion instead of pointing fingers, OM please
either shut up or learn to behave like an adult and learn to discuss
openly, emotional upset is bad for your trading :)

The next interesting topic is that based on the different ways possible
to take profit and/or ride, could there be a way to identify riding
is a better choice and could that improve the odds of having a move
that "double" the original target? Since Bob is the discretionary
trader here, it is his experience that can help here :)

-Lawrence Chan


----- Original Message -----
From: <editorial@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>


>
> Lawrence,
>
> I have read your comments, very funny;  but not very enlightening.
>
> Why knock Bob's great posts?  Are you concerned about the definition of
the word "scalper"?  If you're telling me that everyone who calls himself a
scalper in the spoos is looking for 4-6 points on every trade then you're
full of baloney.
>
> Instead of knocking the posts of others, why don't you discuss how you do
things?  Tell us what works for you.  If it's something different than what
works for Bob, hey, that's great.  But just knocking Bob's posts isn't
adding anything to the discussion...  And we're seeing far too much of this
on the list.  DON'T KNOCK THE POSTS OF OTHERS.  MAKE YOUR OWN POST!
>
>
> Hey NEWBIES!  Pay attention here...  and read Bob Heisler's previous
posts.  'Cause I'm here to tell you - He's speaking the truth.  Notice how
folks get antsy every time Bob makes a post?  Have you ever seen such a
thing?  Does that tell you something?
>
> Bob - Keep up the great work!  I hope you never lose your "itch" to write
and teach!
>
>
> The Omega Man
>
> P.S. - Lawrence, I think you're suffering from the "this man is going to
spill the beans if I don't stop him" syndrome.  As Bob continues to teach
your syndrome is going to get worse.  You better get off the list now 'cause
things are heating up!
>
>