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Well, Robert:
1. No questions, Dow is oversold and will bounce. Question is from where.
If you look into the past, Dow seldom stops at 200 day moving average, as
it close right on today. Almost always (how you like that expression?) it
is "overrun" 200-day for some amount, at minimum introday. So the question
for me is "will Dow close lower tomorrow before the bounce, or the bounce
will come first, and then Dow will penetrate 200-day".
2. If market will crash, it will do so non-stop. Crash "never" take "a
breather". And it "never" exceed 5 days down. We are in the day number
three of the continuos decline.
3. The bigger question: is it "a normal decline" to 200-day in a bull
market or it is a beginning of the bear market?" I do not know it yet.
First I need to see where the bottom is before the bounce rally. Then how
we will bounce (where the top is, how lively we bounce). Then, we need to
see next decline. If the market is going lower (and it is not a crash) the
market will "dance" around 200-day before it decline further.
5. It is "normal" for the bull market to decline sharply and suddenly to
about 10,000 (or a pinch bellow, like 9924. Do I sound like a "guru" now?)
and then rebound sharply (closing the months at about 10700). Are we doing
one of those "normal" things?
That is just some preliminary speculations of the moment, because I did not
had time to analyze the situation deeply. I do not like the NASDAQ
composite today. It usually indicates some serious decline to follow.
Permanently confused Alex.
At 12:12 AM 9/24/99 -0500, Robert W Cummings wrote:
>
>
>Lots of negative press out about the stock market after today's reversal.
>Any options on whether this was just a big break today and will be followed
>by buying tomorrow or we in for another sizable correction? Nite S&P down
>over 9 points bonds up strong.
>Who was that Microsoft guy or mask man today geezer.
>
>Robert
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