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Hi Alex,
At 11:42 AM 9/3/99 -0700, you wrote:
>At 07:42 AM 9/3/99 -0700, Phil Lane wrote:
>
>>anybody noticed - every time they start posting stuff about the crash of
>1987 the market takes off for a huge rally within a >couple days!
>
>If market close on the highs, we all could ridicule the bears, as they
>would happen to be wrong today.
true it ain't over yet
>But as of yesterday, the market was in very dangerous technical position,
>and be the employment report "bad", the market would be pushed over the
>cliff.
The fact that it looked this way to everyone, myself included, was another
specific sign of excessive bearishness. Not to mention that key posting to
the list a few days ago containing the actual word "1987" :-)
As of one person saying "look at 1987" or whatever it is just
>"anecdotical" evidence of the bearishness. There are objective sentiment
>indicators like put/call ration, option premiums, amount of the money in
>bear/bull funds. The problem with all of them, that no meter how "oversold"
>those indicators they always could get more so.
well, that's the nature of speculation.. anything could happen!
>Even as majority of technical indicators (at least those I am looking at)
>told me that yesterday "should" be the bottom, the reality is that it only
>"could" be a bottom. And would DJIA collapse about 600 point (it could
>happen today very easy) the same indicators would say that "the bottom is
>in" much more loader.
see above comment. As far as indicators, try watching for a reversal off
multi-day low in the nasdaq composite index - on an Increase in volume.
Like on 8/31 for example. It's a psychological thing, as the market hits a
peak of emotion on such a day - so holds up pretty well in backtesting.
>As of feeling in your stomach, well did some one had the stomach ache for 3
>days in the row? That all it took to complete 1987 crash.
A majority of people got stomach aches - fast enough - to enable a washout
bottom. I can only hope I would have had a trailing stop in place, or
something... Any system I come up with has to keep me out during the event
or short. It would be very interesting to study the sentiment indicators
leading up to the event.. Anyone have any info on this?
>The bottom line. I am the greatest picker of the tops in bottoms and the
>reader of technical indicators ever walked the Earth. But only on the
>charts. And, indeed, how can any one looking at the chart today miss the
>top on August 25, 1987? Or a bottom yesterday (if we close up today)?
I know what you mean!!!! And thanks for the comments.
Phil
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