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When he calms down he's a machine, ain't he....guy ought to write a book.
Mark Brown wrote:
> > 2.have you find that is better use one system on different markets or
> different systems for every market (because every market is different...)
>
> Very hard question, yes and no. Can you build a system that will trade all
> markets? yes. Would I want to trade one like that? no. So what is the
> validity of a system if it can not trade all markets? Well, it no one
> system should be required to trade all markets profitably, no more than one
> shoe should fit all feet. Can you make a shoe fit all feet? yes. Would I
> want to wear the thing? no. If I were a cave man who was barefoot I may be
> very happy to start with the universal fit all shoe. But as I become more
> aware I may come to desire something of a better fit.
>
> I could write hundreds of pieces of code to trade a trend, a trend is a
> trend ask any 6 year old what the direction of the price is on a chart!
> And presto there is your trend. If trend trading is so great then why does
> every trend trader trade a basket of commodities rather than a single
> commodity? I tell you why, its like betting on every table in Vegas or
> betting at only one table. Its a game of chance that something will hit, I
> personally would rather concentrate on 1 (commodities) good hand of poker
> than to be rolling dice at 28 different (commodities) tables. Can you make
> money using the shotgun approach? yes. However, I had rather be a sharp
> shooter in a tree at a distance than a front line combatant in a muddy
> trench with a sling shot. So its a matter of preference, mine is not trend
> trading.
>
> Counter Trend trading, is the life for me. Computer analysis shows that
> there are many more wiggles in commodity data than there are strait lines.
> Therefore I'll take the wiggles since there's more of them. Since there's
> more of them then I have a larger pool of data that I can sample my systems
> on. More food to feed them, now this would contrast to researcher's who had
> rather not be put under the magnifying glass of reality. Many systems look
> great with small data samples, but very few withstand the crushing rigors of
> massive testing! Wiggles give many more opportunities to make money and to
> gain a "consistency of trading" that markets true personality, whereas trend
> following doesn't capture a particular markets behavior. Another pitfall
> that trend trading has is the "EYE" appeal, everyone can see that huge move
> on a chart. This is what the human mind focuses upon, and so it is much
> easier to justify the reasoning for trend trading as opposed to counter
> trend trading.
>
> Many seat of the pant traders are counter trend traders, this very
> personality trait can swing ones emotions as high and low as the account
> balance fluctuates. So for a counter trend trader to become mechanical is
> probably the hardest fought battle in the history of trading. I know of no
> other method of trading that makes more money in a shorter period of time if
> done properly. What appears to be a gamble or taking a shot, is actually a
> controlled statistical exercise that becomes second nature after awhile in
> the saddle.
>
> mb
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