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wong <whs@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> I do notice that in some of system results, the number of losing
> bars DO INDICATE ZERO.
If those trades were entered/exited via stops, then most likely the
results it's showing you are fantasy. Maybe you could recreate those
results in realtime trading, maybe not; depends on what happened
inside that bar.
You can't trust TS reports if a trade enters & exits within the same
bar, if you use stops.
I believe the only exception is when you enter or exit on open/close.
For example, if you enter on the open, and your system exits on a MM
stop within the same bar, you can believe the report. You know your
entry price is valid (the open) and you know that the stoploss price
was hit AFTER the open.
But if you entered on the open (or on a previous bar), and had both
stoploss AND profit target stops that were both hit within that bar,
you don't know what happened. The market might have gone up and hit
your profit target before diving and hitting the stoploss, or it
might have done the opposite. You can't tell from the OHLC of a
daily bar.
If this wundersystem from the UK does something like "buy on open,
sell on close," or even "buy on open, sell at profit target WITH NO
ADDITIONAL STOPS e.g. MM stops," then it's actually possible the
system results are true even though avg bars = 0. (Right, experts?)
But I don't for a minute believe this guy can predict the open/close
with that level of accuracy, and even if he could, he wouldn't sell
it for $350. I think Mark et al are right, and he's using the stops
and TS's "interesting" reporting of them to promote a scam.
I've emailed him a request to verify that his trades are real. Since
this seems to have raised quite a bit of interest here and on the
Code list, I'll report what I find out. I expect to come back in a
few days and tell you he ignored me, or that he refused to prove his
claims.
Gary
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