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A response to the response:
No doubt that EWT is theoretical AND controversial AND ambiguous at times. I
subscribe to two different EWT newsletters.....and the differences in
analysis (and conclusions) are amazing !
If many traders followed and subscribed to EWT, then possibly it would lose
it's validity. The beauty of EWT is that it attempts to capture the impact
on price of human emotion and crowd psychology.... a monumentally difficult
feat....and therefore imprecise at best. As a guideline or "filter" though,
EWT can be extremely valuable in providing a rough "road map" of future
pricing. Personally I have seen it work for both medium term (< 3 months)
position trading as well as day trading. It's long-term predictive ability
is not good at all....as witnessed by Robert Prechter's embarassing bear
calls of the past 10 years. But then again, is anything that good for the
long term ?
> ----Original Message-----
> From: Robyn Greene [mailto:greene@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, April 12, 1999 6:47 PM
> To: Earl Adamy
> Cc: Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: GET Elliot Wave - the final insult
>
>
> Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> > A few general comments re your questions in both posts. I've
> never been a
> > big fan of EW, largely because I've felt a large part of it was
> theoretical
> > and only a small part was useful for actual trading. What I
> considered to be
> > the useful part (about 10%) seemed to be embodied in the various fib
> > retracements and projections which I've used for many years...
>
> Two observations for anyone considering this type of software.
> First, you have
> to figure out whether the majority of traders in the securities
> you're trading
> give EWT any weight at all (if no one in the security follows EWT
> - then - IMO -
> it's relatively worthless - because I believe that certain
> technical indicators
> work in certain markets only because the majority of traders in the market
> believe in them). Second - if they do follow any form of EWT -
> what do they
> follow - and what's the easiest and (perhaps) cheapest way to
> follow it. For
> example - when I look at a particular (non-free) news service -
> Bridge News - it
> usually gives the various support/resistance points for bonds on
> a daily basis -
> including the fib retracements and projections. Paying for a
> reporting service
> can be cheaper than buying software - especially if the software
> costs more than
> $2000/year. Robyn
>
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