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Hi Tom:
Years ago, I tried 1. Market Mirror (pattern recognition software); 2.
BrainMaker (neural network); 3. ModelWare (based on some advanced modelling
algorithm, purported to be of great predictive value). I spent thousands
of hours on each, and never got anything out of any of the three programs.
My conclusion: they may be great for describing today's prices, but very
bad for predicting future prices; or maybe I'm very stupid and don't know
how to use them to my advantage.
Maybe because my background is not math, programming or engineering
oriented. Or maybe I have limited IQ. Anyways, it was a very
disheartening experience.
A few years ago, I talked to Mark Jurik over the phone, and we discussed
neural network application to stocks and futures. I told him I no longer
believed in nn. He said he had good results. (If you visit his website,
some of his products are nn-related.)
I never pressed on, and he never pressed me either.
I'd rather stick to the old traditional indicators that I'm familiar with,
like moving average, RSI, Stochastic etc.
Anyways, thanks for sharing your experience with us!
Regards,
Wong
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At 08:46 PM 04/10/99 -0700, Tom Cathey wrote:
>Well, well. I'm afraid it's come to this.
>
>Just to give you all an update on the Fuzzy project I've been working on
>here.
>
>To refresh memories, I picked up a $2300 NeuralFuzzy package and intended to
>put my five homespun S&P indicators into it as a trading assistant to help
>take the mental strain off.
>
>Well.... after about 125 hours of serious work the best I can do is get a
>very retarded trading assistant working. It seems that there is so much
>noise in the normal market data and indicators that the network is easily
>confused.
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