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tj, any comments,suggestions, or questions would be appreciated. thanks.
4-8-99 Thursday comments for Friday
The market is finally making it to my 1363 objective level. Had it been
accomplished today, the upside would have likely been revised to
1430-1432—another 5.56%.
Preliminarily, if the market opens below 1360 tomorrow and then trades
above 1362.90, then it would be a sell and I encourage you to get timing
down with 1 minute sell. The market should be up in the morning and it
should be followed by a pullback which will be succeeded by another
rally to higher highs just about your lunchtime(12:45-1:45est). The
countdown for a sell signal will be 9 or 10 tomorrow, therefore after a
market decline and maybe another rally to much higher intraday levels—my
blow-off scenario—the 13 will finally be recorded.
The differential says higher high tomorrow than today before a lower
low.
Today’s low was accompanied by a one minute buy and the low came within
10 ticks of today’s low projection.
The stocks which were recommended as breakouts yesterdsay similar to LU
last week—JPM, IBM, etc.—all followed through today.
MO and DAL fell short of their buy signals by only 1 tick each.
Numerous other stocks on the list such as QTRN, AEE, AFFX, KEA gave
signals which worked. MU was a buy into weakness and performed only for
a short period of time. KEA could be explosive like PER upside—it has
the same pattern.
The WLA "13" buy has worked well since being confirmed and the entry was
postponed preventing opportunity costs.
The projected high and low for tomorrow are 1369.70 and 1343.90 and the
momentum value is 6.30.
4-8-99 Thursday comments for Friday Part 2 IMPORTANT Buy PENDING
Foreign currencies-SELL Dollar PENDING
I overlooked to mention the fact that the currencies are approaching
major turning points.
The D Mark is a "12" toward a buy and so is the Swiss Franc. These
signals occur infrequently. The last currency signal was a British Pound
buy on February 24 and then neutral March 24 followed by a buy 2 days
ago. The Jap Yen has held it "horizontal line" for 4 days and an up
close tomorrow is very bullish—must wait. The Yen has worked at every
major turning point in the past. ***Furthermore and, more importantly,
the Euro currency has given a 13 buy with an extended 9 reinforcing the
buy signal. The only concern I have is that the D mark and Swiss Franc
are not exceptionally strong buys—almost BUYS (day 12 of 13 and will
likely record new lows for buy days. The Yen must close up Friday to
confirm uptrend and BUY.
4-8-99 Thursday comments for Friday Part 3---- Higher than S and P
1363??
I’d like to share with you a series of events which occurred within the
last 24 hours. First of all, an individual influenced by my work and
with a large institutional constituency announced the termination of a
monthly S and P "13" sell to be given this month. He recited the
numerous successful market calls made by this indicator.(I sent you a
copy of his report early this morning at 4:00am est.) He anticipates the
market’s peak for the year either tomorrow or Monday. Others, also
familiar with the indicators, have cited their interpretation of
imminent sell readings as well. Today I received a message from Peter
Borish on my recorder, a contact from Tudor, a third party contact from
Lee Cooperman, as well. Although none spoke directly to me, all left
messages to call regarding the status of a possible sell signal.
Apparently, Lee thought this morning was the start of the market’s
decline.
Although I have repeatedly warned of a sell signal and presented
numerous upside price objectives along the way, I have had to revise
them every time. Two months ago, I calculated a 1362.90 objective and
believed it to be the ultimate market high. In the past, when the price
and pattern configurations gave coincident high risk indications, they
occurred simultaneous with the accomplishment of the price objectives.
In every price objective in this upside move, the signals were lacking
or vice versa. This time I thought they would be coincident. It may not
be if tomorrow is the anticipated price high.
Currently, the S and P and the Dow are 9 and 8, respectively, toward a
sell "13". If the "13" is to appear once a price objective is met, the
current proposition is certainly incongruous for a market high tomorrow.
Consequently, let me give this scenario as a alternative possibility.
Tomorrow, provided the S and P opens below 1360(most definitely 1362.80)
and then trades above 1362.90, the price objective will have been
fulfilled. The fact that the market had rallied significantly off its
lows today implies that this breakout above 1363.00 is "disqualified".
Therefore the market should fail to close above 1363.00 tomorrow. Should
it trade above 1363.00 and then close below today’s close(Thursday), a
reversal will have occurred and instead of tomorrow being the prelude to
the decline, it will be merely an interruption—note that reversals do
not top or bottom markets unless the reversal day’s close exceeds ALL
previous 4 trading days’ closes. A decline-1-3 days should occur and
then the final run-up to the blow-off level of 1431.00 with an
accompanying "13" sell signal could very well occur. Don’t get me wrong,
tomorrow’s high could be it, but given the juxtaposition of the price
objective and the current countdown, the distinct possibility exists of
a short term correction and the accompanying blow-off to 5.56%. I will
better be able to assess this situation subsequent to tomorrow’s market
activity.
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