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> >So, I'm starting to redevelop
> >my system to run every minute instead of every 15 minutes --- and then
> >to more carefully analyze the lead times of the indicators.
>
> this is wrong, smaller time frames cause more people to loose money than
> anything, only control freaks like small time frames, and very few control
> freaks make any money. its obvious that Greg Wood did this but it took him
> about 250 trades to just get back to a break even according to his equity
> curve. and if you look he really didn't start making big money until about
> 600-700 trades. the facts are his broker has made more money that he has
> for the amount of stress. I want to be Greg's broker, I wouldn't need to
> trade..
First, thanks to Greg for putting those real numbers up, and
and offering the opporunituty discuss his trading record and style.
Not taking anything away from Greg's success, and his perseverence ...
it did strike me that you could pretty much line up his equity curve
with that of the overall S&P over the same timeframe. He did manage to
limit downside during the October turbulence, which is a plus, but it
supports the overall idea that Greg traded mostly long only, and that
if he'd followed the overall trend he'd have been up as much or better
(less commish and slippage) if he'd traded the trend. (Greg, if I got
this wrong, please comment and correct me).
To me, the main argument for daytrading, is limiting drawdown, and
to make money when the market isn't trending. If you can do that,
then it is "worth it". I also think daytrading is the way to go
when the daily range is large enough to offer a good return. Generally,
on the systems that I've played with, an Ave. True Range of about 1.25%
to 3% seems to offer a good profile. Too little daily range: not worth it.
Too much daily range: difficult to control the risk.
--
| Gary Funck, Intrepid Technology, gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx, (650) 964-8135
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