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>MB sez:
>> ps Lets say present day I have a system that uses a 1500.00 stop on the
30
>> year bonds. What would that have been some time back in history?
>
>1500 * past_volatility / current_volatility
>
>it's gotta be adaptive to keep working in the future.... but, of course,
>MB (MR. adaptive) knows this.... <g>
yep I'm mr. adaptive my trading this year has been profitable but a wild
ride. I have never advocated using stops and all my systems (in order to be
adaptive) resist using stops. Now I am committed this year that I am going
to use what I call eyeball stops, stops that are not placed in the market
but trigger the system to give it permission to reverse the trade if it
wants. I am only using the dollar amounts to start an adaptive flip feature
but I feel that even that fixed dollar amount needs to be adaptive. So I
think rather than use the volatility of the price action itself I will try
and use an upper and lower value confidence band and let the mean of course
be the middle reading. Then there's the question of the dreaded look back,
or why not just use truerange. TrueRange if written for intraday data might
do very well indeed, this one indicator though not used by me for any
reason, always impress me. However it also has a lookback..
MB
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