|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
frank,
a number of years ago we conducted a study to determine the period of
time markets trend versus range trade. with the exception of cartel
markets--those markets which can be controlled due to limited suppliers
and/or concentrated and few commercial buyers and/or one factor
determinants such as coffee freeze, oil embargo, rubber or tin
restrictions, and currency markets(money supply and interest rate
driven, etc)most markets trend up 12-16% of the time and trend down
6-12%of the time. psychologically, an uptrending market is
self-fulfilling and reinforcing, so as the positive news or outlook
unfolds it is easier to buy; however when a sell recommendation or a
negative posture is assumed it is not piecemeal--it is sell all.
the answer to the question as to when markets trend or not may reside in
the markets that are traded. if they are foreign or limited source
markets, they are more likely to trend whereas domestic markets or those
with bountful suppliers are more likely to trend. look at most trend
follower cta's. typically, they have wide exposure to many many markets
uncertain as to what markets will trend but there in anticipation. the
outlyers which do trend more than make up for those which range trade.
typically, accuracy as low as 25-30% can be bailed out with the few
trending markets and positive returns produced.
for example; central bank decisions are not casually arrived at and
meant to be reversed and that is why their interaction with economic
summits are so important in establishing trends.
the reference was made to daily price activity bounded by a TD Trend
Factor level 1 of plus or minus 5.556%. i tend to refer to short,
intermediate, and long term not within the connotation of time but
rather price movement. historically, those measures were aptly depicted
in terms of weeks, months, quarters, etc but what took then to produce a
5-10% move may have been months and now could occur in days or even
minutes. consequently, less than 6% is short term, for example; 7-16%
move is intermediate, and 17-23% is long term, for example.
best regards,
tom demark
Frank Koch wrote:
>
> Hi Tom,
> very good to know that you still active on this list !
>
> about what time frames and markets you are speaking here :
>
|