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A week ago I've seen some interestingly (to me) looking screenshots which show
probable future turning point price & time ranges. What I found
interesting about it is the concept of having a range where you say:
if prices go into that specific range - a box (price/time) than
something happens with a certain probability.
The software is called "GoldenBox", www.theGoldenBox.com, I AM NOT
associated with this programm but i would appreciate any feedback on
this ideas and would like to know if anyone on the list knows
something similar to this or has any experience with this kind of
approach.
In my opinion such a price/time box results in having a discrete distribution (which
of course would be interesting to know) looking something like this:
x% reach the Golden Box (GB)
1-x% of time prices do not go into GB
y% prices turn if they go into GB
1-y% they don't
z% prices continue in the direction
1-z% prices turn before going into GB
This results in the following probability P(GB-Turn) that prices reach the GB
and make turning point:
P(GB-Turn) = x*y
On the other hand the probability that prices do not go into the GB
and continue in trend would be:
P(GB-miss, trend continue) = (1-x)*z
Depending on the probabilities such an approach would be usefull as
either
- price target for exiting positions
- entry of new positions
- pyramiding (e.g. prices not going into GB, and continuing prior trend)
Thanks
Michael
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