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At 11:15 AM -0400 10/19/98, Gabe Hanover wrote:
<snip>
>Where does that leave us? If you were fortunate enough to take Statistics
>101, you know that multi-linear regression analysis is perhaps the best
>tool for predicting A. It does not use A to predict A, but rather, it uses
>independent variables b, c, d, e. etc. For us, this means using indexes,
>market statistics, sentiment indicators, interest rates, another stock,
>future or group and any other independent numeric indicator to predict the
>future of A, except A itself.
>Does anybody doubt this? Am I going over old territory?
It has been proven that markets have at least short-term memory so that you
can, in fact, predict future price from price alone.
Perhaps you can get a better prediction by using more variables. I would
expect that longer term predictions would be much better if they are based
upon more fundamental factors such as interest rates, earnings, etc.
Bob Fulks
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