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According to my stats, the 200Ma story is still a mixed-bag at this point in
time-- with a possible slightly Bullish bias.
SPX, OEX, and Dow-30 all closed slightly above their 200Ma on Friday.
NASD-100 is well above and NASD Composite well below its 200Ma.
The 200Ma on the Dow turned down on August 27 for the first time since Oct.
'97 and ticked up only this past October 9. At this point, it looks like
it could be a mirror-image of the situation in Oct. 97, when the 200Ma's
ticked down for a day or two then reversed upward. Volume should provide
the key to any upside confirmation.
Of course, if Greenie slips another few basis points under the door, all
conventional TA is in for a jolt.
I would be interested in hearing any other comments on this subject or other
perspectives on the current technical situation in the Market.
______________________________________
At 08:07 PM 10/17/98 -0300, you wrote:
>Dear Netters,
>
>As I already mentioned in this list, if there is one indicator that even
>the most radical fundamentalist respects, it is the 200 period
>moving average (200 MA).
>
>Indeed, this one indicator has such a huge following that it
>becomes important to take it into consideration.
>
>First look at the Dow Jones Industrials average: during most of
>august the 200 MA provided support. When it was broken prices
>immediatly sunk. Now, the DJ INDU is testing it as a resistance.
>
>More amazing is what happend with the S&P 500 index. The
>support 200 MA provided during most of august has been broken.
>The 200 MA line then provided a powerful resistance during late
>september and is now being tested again. This is an amazingly
>beautiful textbook quality example of technical analysis!
>
>For both Microsoft and IBM, the 200 MA provided support and has
>not been broken, which means both hardware and software are
>apparently in shape!
>
>I do not think that the 200 MA has any magical powers attached to
>it, but the charts clearly indicate that they have an enormous and
>powerful following.
>
>And when that happens, one can always explore this situation
>since it cannot be easily arbitraged away.
>
>Alfredo
>L
>
>
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