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Hi Glenn and others
All those who previously requested that I send them .gif files when I do
them will already have them viz a viz what I said yesterday, in relation to
the T-Bonds price action on 10/13.
Hopefully the .gif file will answer the questions. But here are some from
Glenn's post to me to add to the answers.
Glenn: I see 128^24 as the R1 but is there more resistance here? Can you
point it out to me? How do I know to exit and go short here? What told you
that resistance probably would hold here?
Answer: R1 was 129^ 06. Your chart must be set out accurately before you
start Today or you could be in deep trouble. In this case, the great 'weald
of resistance' as I called it, was just under your ^24 and as the market
stalled FOR HALF AN HOUR on this reistance, if you were long from the second
bar after the open (the gap to be followed trade!) you would have come out
here with a 10 tick profit. By the end of the stall, when the intraday
high was re-tested and failed dismally, it was time to short the market.
Glenn: How did you know to take profits on the short here? Price put in
many bottoms here. Seems that timing is important here. I see support at
yesterday's low which price never
hit. What support are you seeing?
Answer: The market went down quite rapidly and then retraced to the Pivot.
This was a very bearish .382 retracement, which meant that you held your
position. If you weren't in, this was an opportunity. It was also a
chance to add to your position or to take profits and leave a 'free' trade
running - depending on your style. No fixed rules here!!
I don't know what bottoms you are seeing here - the one that counted was on
the major tangle of support lines between ^18 and ^21 between 9.55 and
10.00. You might have come out at the end of the bar at 9.45, but the
momentum was with you. You might have continued long with the stall and
come out further down. As you say, the price got nowhere near Yesterday's
Low. It more or less drifted back to the support lines and then came back
to test the Intraday Low and put in a reversal, which you should have
bought.
The market then headed north and looked as if it was going to end up with a
Doji. At any event, it put in a clear reversal on Today's Open - which
ended up a little 'thank you' trade of 10 ticks MOC - but it might just have
been a retracement, and hardly worth the hassle after taking out what was
genuinely on the table. I like a good half hour for the 'thank you' trade.
Glenn: I see S1 hit at 9:05a Chicago Time with a strong up 5-min bar. I
bought here.
Answer: I don't know where you got your S1 calculation from. Because of
the huge move the day before S1 was miles away at 126^07, so I do not know
what you were buying at. At 9.05 on my chart the market did indeed put in a
reversal pattern BUT IT WASN'T ON ANYTHING and was simply the retracement
from the top. The market then ran along the Pivot (we do agree the Pivot at
123^03 I hope?!) before continuing its course south.
Glenn: I'm hoping your manual will not only give examples of where to take
a trade but also include examples of trades to avoid and explanations
as to how to avoid them. I feel this is what is wrong with many of the
manuals/tutorials that I have purchased. They usually give
specifically selected examples that work fine with the methodology
and the examples that do not work, they normally leave out of the
manual/tutorial
Answer: I know what you mean about only seeing winning trades. While the
manual clearly dwells on the positive, what I intend to do is to try and
answer questions about Today's chart on the website, for those that have the
manual. I will be able to post .gif files there and so be able to answer
questions and deal with comments, for the benefit of all users. In fact,
this could be a sort of dry run - but with the .gif, which I cannot send
here. Hopefully, those that have it will read this in conjucntion it.
It always is easy after the event and I appreciate the idea is to be able to
see it before the event. What I hope you can see, however, is that if you
mark the chart correctly before you start, you do, indeed, have a good
degree of 'foresight'. With the .gif file and this commentary, I hope you
can see what you could have seen - and hopefully will learn to see from the
manual. This is what I call 'reading the tape' and you can learn to do it -
on the T-Bonds, anyway.
And, without rubbing it in too much for those that swear by them, you do not
need any indicators. A good feed, a good charting package and marking up
the charts properly and accurately before Today starts and (it would be
foolish of me not to say) the manual will teach you how to do it. But look
at the result of Today's action: 10 ticks up, 30 ticks down, 15 ticks up
and forget the 'thank you' trade!
No one is saying it is easy, but it most certainly is possible and, if you
learn to read the tape - well this one anyway - is probable. That is about
the size of it. Of course it is hard work. Making a living is. All those
that can position trade with the right capital and indicators, good luck.
Not my bag, I believe is the modern expression.
Anyway, hope this all helps.
Bill
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