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-----Original Message-----
From: T R P <trader8@xxxxxxxxx>
To: Neal Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, October 12, 1998 4:20 PM
Subject: don't send this to Elaine!!!! I'm not really worried.
Market Update – evening October 12, 1998
Today, the market carried into our upside target zone, with the DJIA
hitting 8084 and the SPX hitting 1010.71. Jeez, it's only been a couple of
days, but we're once again running out of upside targets. What to do now?
Let's recap. We are in a bear market, and we've gotten a great rally, 87
points on the SPX, 90 points on the SP8Z and 617 points on the DJIA. Bear
market rallies to be big, but short-lived. We ideally would like to see the
market carry a bit higher, get more overbought (it's neutral right now) and
last until this Wednesday or Thursday - but this is wishful thinking and a
form of greed (as well as risk control). Having met most of our objectives,
and more importantly having the proprietary Index come back to the halfway
point of the decline, one has to say that probably we have completed the
automatic rally phase after the mini-climax low of last Thursday.
Therefore, at a minimum we should soon begin the phase where we go back and
test last weeks' low. On our Index, this was a lower low than before, and
because we still have much lower objectives, you cannot expect the test to
be successful. In other words, there's no reason presently to believe that
the lows will hold again. It may very well just keep going. Down.
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