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Re: Back test or technical analysis



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"Neal T. Weintraub" <ntw@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Rocket Science, The Tower of Babel and Golf
> Despite the fact that many great fortunes have been made by
> so-called "technical analysis" practitioners, it is still widely
> considered today by uneducated investors that technical analysis
> doesn't "work". 

Actually, I'd say it's the OVEReducated investors who think TA 
doesn't (can't) work.  They point to random-walk theories and 
Efficient Market Hypotheses and explain patiently to you, as if to a 
retarded child, that Nobel Prizes have been awarded for proving that 
TA can't work.

And meanwhile good TA's are making a bundle.  Go figger.

> For another example, on July 11, 1998 I provided a list of 46 sell
> candidates to my clients using one of my favorite signals, and of the 46
> only one stock went higher than the stop price. Of the rest, three went
> sideways and 42 were significantly lower only days later. 

Good signal.  I don't suppose he shares any of the details?

> A very few analysts, including
> esteemed colleague Frank Teixeira (and I), went completely bearish this
> past July, warning that the markets were going much lower soon. 

Do you know how he arrived at that conclusion?  Would be a very 
valuable skill to have...

Thanks for the post!
Gary