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Neil,
Am not kidding. I was once a knife carrying daily hand to hand combat floor
traders for more than five years. After quite sometime, the stress will kill you
(irregardless you are making money or not).
Which usually the decision making of buying and selling is made from gut
feeling. But
nowadays you have to have got a sort of "system" (irregardless whether
technical or fundamental) to tell you when to get out or get back in telling
you that you are wrong.
The movement of prices are so volatile, we need tools to improve your entries,
and exits
or when to reverse because the price action tells you that the last action you
have taken was wrong. Okay, I accept its your style is not to touch those
elcetrical things (aka computers)but you still have to have a "systematic"
approach for consistent,competent
trading decision making. The trading world for me these days, I have to find
better and
bigger set of knives, there really are some good methods. If you dislike any
indicators,
there are some simple and good chart "bar pattern" setups to aid you. (at least
this
minimal tool/weapon)) These alone are definitely better than any gut feel or
emotional decision making (monetarily,psychologically physically speaking). I
sincerely believe that instinctve decision making will go the way of the
dinosaurs. Even if you are correct once in a while, can you do it consistently,
week after week, year after year. By the time
the years goes by, your brain and emotional setups are already punch drunk, you
get
burned out faster aside from not really a full pocketbook for all your efforts.
Volatility these days can turn your stomach in and out if you trade with
instincts alone,
even or especially intra day trades. We really need a "systematic" approach. If
not,the
market will really kill you literally, figuratively speaking. Yes, I also agree,
we have to
have some fundamental background of what the government is doing in affecting
the markets and the positions of the insiders (as in your COT), and what they
are up to.
With technical approach, you really don't need market specific fundamentals for
stocks (as in company balance sheet,income statement,etc.) or commodities
(inventory supply,
or harvest), current market prices already factored in these data. If you got
too much
fundamental info, they just confuses me with conflicting ideas, so I just threw
them out,
and am still doing okay. In my world of trading stock market, I have seen almost
80%
of our shares losing 95% value the last 12 months. (irregardless of company
fundamentals). So, its nothing everyday even for a blue chip to move 10-15% both
directions each day. If you don't have a good knife (edge), you wouldn't last a
month.
Apology for such a long one, was a stockbroker,as you know, we are all
windbags.
Regards,
Felix
Neal T. Weintraub wrote:
> True. True. Yes, I am going to put a truth indicator on my computer
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