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> From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Al Taylor-C.T.A. <ataylor@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [Fwd: I want to purchase a TS: Summary]
> Date: Thursday, September 24, 1998 7:43 AM
>
>
>
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From: "Al Taylor-C.T.A." <ataylor@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Timothy Morge" <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: I want to purchase a TS: Summary
Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 07:28:58 -0500
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Timothy:
I am a registered C.T.A. but I only use that registration for putting out
trade recommendations, news letters, publications, and the likes. I find
your reference to any particular system quite accurate. I further feel it
can not compensate nor rationalize the difference between human nature and
greed.
The emotional state of participants in the market place, nor their (the
traders) own lack of control over his/her emotional state while trading. I
concur with your statement and that cited in your qoute. If you go blindly
after anything without thought for what it is you are attempting to attain,
nor the conditions which may not have been compensated for in that regard.
You are almost certainly destined for failure and disaster.
Systems by all means have their place though. They give those without the
market saavy and confidence a bead from which to start their trading
activities, but do not emphasize that due to many variances and impacting
factors not compensated for by the system they have to use a little common
sense and discretion in their use and trading activities concerning such
system. Most authors won't disclose the total nuts and bolts about their
system bacause there may be further pitfalls which would detter a
prospective purchaser form purchasing it if they knew that it had a few
bells and whistle alerts which show short commings.
"A trader, any trader, applying any technique of any system would do well
to learn the personality of the market they are trading. Study its intra
day cycles, long term personality, short term personality and intermediate
personality prior to entering and believing they can kick its butt. Couple
this newly learned information with that of the expertice of the system
they chose to rely on and whamo! Thay just might have a very successful
trading career. **Of course knowing when to hold them, knowing when to
fold them, and knowing when to run are all relevant and critical factors to
any trading philosophy and system. As well as the ability to admit I
screwed up and reverse.
All this bears down on one blatantly obvious observation of all the bit
gurus and that is " The trend is generally your friend". If you are short
and it keeps going higher and kicking you out. How much brain power does
it take to deduce. Maybe I am in the wrong direction, what do you think?
Don't let pride of initial conviction be your down fall. But let your
ability to admit you are wrong and reverse your thinking be the stepping
stone to your trading success!"
(Quoted author of the above is : Al Taylor -C.T.A. Taylors Target Markets
(tm) )
Thank you for your consideration and allowing me this opportunity to
respond herein. Best wishes to all.
Until I hear from you again, I remain,
Very truly yours,
Al Taylor
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
E-mail ATaylor@xxxxxxxxxx / Web site http://www.pmbinc.com
Toll Free Direct: U.S. 1-888-236-5902 Toll Free Abroad= United Kingdom:
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> From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Alfredo Simas <alfredo.simas@xxxxxxx>
> Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: I want to purchase a TS: Summary
> Date: Wednesday, September 23, 1998 10:22 AM
>
> Alfredo:
>
> Interesting post and interesting conclusions.
>
> It's my opinion that experienced traders here, both systems traders and
> discretionery traders, have traveled the path of buying other people's
> techniques and systems. In general, this path will wind around and around
the
> mountain of doom until you take responsibility of your own thoughts and
actions.
> Systems, like trading techniques, are tools to be used. They are not the
door to
> riches.
>
> A good trader looks at any new tool with skepticism. I'll quote Mark
Brown from
> a post this morning, since it fits in perfectly with this answer:
>
> > I will also comment you only find these things out when you are
> > actually using the program to trade and you have money riding on the
> > software, then and only then does every little detail about the
software
> > matter so much to you. MB
>
> If you buy a book because you believe the hype that this one book will be
the
> key to your trading success, you will be disappointed. If you buy a
system
> because you thought you would be able 'to follow it blindly for about
three
> years,' you will be disappointed and probably have stopped trading long
before
> the three years are up. Following anything blindly will generally lead to
ruin.
>
> However, if you purchase a book about trading and read it with a
discerning eye,
> you may learn a few interesting techniques that you can add to your
trading tool
> arsenal. And if you buy a system and look deep into its nooks and
crannies and
> study it while you paper trade it, you may learn much about the system,
both
> good and bad, and about yourself [again, both good and bad]. You might
even find
> a system that suits your personality, your trade tolerance and your
> expectations. But you will only know these things after you look at this
> system's bumps and warts. I would not characterize this as 'following a
system
> blindly.'
>
> You conclude that:
>
> > It seems that you experienced traders don't believe in
> > buying trading systems. It also seems that either you don't have a
> > good trading system or you will not share it.
>
> I don't reach that conclusion after reading the posts that were made in
response
> to your original query. A list like this gets naive posts like your
original
> post at least once a month and to the traders that have been here
discussing the
> minutiae of trading successfully, these posts are generally taken as an
insult
> to the traders that sweat and toil learning how to trade their techniques
and/or
> their systems. I would hazard that some of the scorn you felt in reply to
your
> original post also comes from the memories of the systems and indicators
and
> books we all bought in a weak moment, with the hope that we would indeed
find
> the BIG answer to solve our trading woes, only to find that they were the
same
> tired tricks of the trade recycled once again.
>
> There are traders here that certainly do feel there are good trading
systems. In
> fact, quite a few of them trade good trading systems. I doubt they trade
them
> 'blindly,' however. They take the signals and execute the signals, but
they also
> look at the performance and do continuing research on how to improve the
system,
> because for the most part, the successful systems were built by the
people that
> trade them.
>
> And last, you ask:
>
> > Aren't you guys validating the random-walk hypothesis? Why are
> > you still in this business?
>
> I assure you the serious traders here do not believe the market follows a
random
> walk. Many of us make a very good living trading. Certainly practicing
money
> management is a good part of our success, but I personally see patterns
and
> rhythms repeated over and over in the markets. The markets that I trade
are
> certainly not random. And I am in business because trading is what I do
and it's
> what I love to do. It pays for food, clothing, my cars, the wants of my
wife and
> our soon-to-be-born son.
>
> I hope this answers some of your questions. I also hope you can now make
a
> better characterization of the serious traders that discuss trading on
this
> list.
>
> Best,
>
> Tim Morge
> Alfredo Simas wrote:
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > I would like to kind of summarize for you the replies I got to my
> > question concerning the purchase of a Trading System:
> >
> > I received many messages saying that such a system does not
> > exist.
> >
> > Some replies were in the line of "Why not give your money to
> > charity so you will at least do something worthwhile." Others were
> > like that: "Are you serious? Don't think such a thing exist, or the
> > developer would ever sell it, and if there is, he's too busy living it
up
> > in the Bahamas." or "Of course, if any of us had this system, we'd
> > be very happy [I am guessing MB would buy Omega and turn it into
> > a charity for destitute newbie traders] and very rich."
> >
> > Others just told me to take my time and do my homework.
> >
> > These comments were all very enlightening and highly educational
> > to me. It seems that you experienced traders don't believe in
> > buying trading systems. It also seems that either you don't have a
> > good trading system or you will not share it.
> >
> > Ralph Vince in his book "Portfolio Management Formulas" wrote a
> > completely different assertion:
> >
> > "If, like so many people, you do not believe you can find a decent
> > system for sale, you are sadly mistaken. True, most systems that
> > are for sale are junk, yet some are very good, and some are terrific".
> > and he completes: "systems, like market ideas, are 99.73% junk".
> >
> > My question to all of you is:
> > Aren't you guys validating the random-walk hypothesis? Why are
> > you still in this business?
> >
> > Any comments will be gladly appretiated.
> >
> > Alfredo
>
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