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bruceb wrote:
> As for those foreign programmers, the US just increased the
> number of visas for hi tech workers. Any Indian programmer worth his or her
> salt is on a plane heading toward Silicon Valley right now, and when they do
> start earning 100K/yr, they'll bring their family over and stay for good...
>
Yes, You Americans should have thank your forefathers for their wisdom,of
accepting imigrants. Remember these first generation immigrants are usually
the cream of the crop from wherever country (society)they come from. Yes, maybe
they
talk with funny accent, clothe differently, but they are America's edge in trade
competition with ther world. Just look at your hospitals, universities and
research
facilites, sometimes these people are the only one well educated in their family
back
in their home country and look who is benefiting them. And if they stay for
good,
think of the contribution to the melting pot gene pool. The big losers are the
host
country where they come from, where few economic opportunities and political
restrictions work against them. and finally, for those red necks out there, the
first
generation immigrants are also the most hardworking and no problem with the
dirty or manual jobs. Can you imagine what your medical costs will be if there
are no foreign medical workers? ( care givers, nurses, and doctors).
> Global capital flows threw a wrench into the equation that the Asian
> economic model was completely unprepared for. At first, the influx of
> foreign money looked great to the Asians. They were being offered money at
> much lower interest rates than they could get from local lenders, as long as
> they borrowed in dollars. There didn't seem to be any downside to borrowing
> in dollars, because their governments had pledged to peg their currencies to
> the dollar at a fixed exchange rate.
>
> Unfortunately this foreign money at lower rates combined with very closed
> economic system led to a classic real estate bubble, which when it popped
> brought the entire economy down with it.
Its not as simple as liberating the trade barriers only . The Philippines is a
primeexample, our politicians were the most aggresive in opening our trade
barriers,
(You won't be hearing any American Free Trade negotitator complaining about
the Philippuines trade liberalization program) (as usual, we are always the
first
in experiments, but that's another story). But still we got hit by the crisis
main
reason if overbuilding of real estate projects to rate of demand and leveraged
developers at that. Second is the too much foreign debt (cheap loans below
10% per annum) compared to our local currency loan of late teens. So the
biggest players in our economy opt for foreign loans and was caught off
guard by the regional (started in Thailand) turmoil w/c drag our currency down.
Knew one family personally lost over US$10 million dollars over the devaluation,
right now they just pay the interest and slowly ,incrememently paying the
principal
every month.
> How is any intelligent, rational investor supposed to make an
> informed decision in such an atmosphere? This obviously doesn't apply to
> someone like Felix who is "on the scene" and is therefore capable of finding
> the needles in the haystack.
>
Your best bet is for foreign companies that are also traded in you exchangesas
GDRs. Because in order to be listed in your exchange, they must report
their accounting practices that are acceptable to your SEC standards.
Or else they will get delisted if there are violations. and these companies
needed
the stockmarket to maintain low funds and the insiders will be needing
liquidity as much
as possible. Our telephone monopoly, "PHI" is actually already owned by
foreigners,
the current set of directors are just "dummies". As utilities, not very much
affected by
any economic crisis, but currently is being drag down by Asian Crisis Fever. If
you would
take a look at its chart, you can see the underlying strength despite all the
bad news.Your top ten accounting companies has offices and subsidiaries in our
country, this will take time,
but our accounting standards will soon be at par with US standards or that is
acceptable.
> This is why when you recommend investing in Asia (and Russia) Gerrit, you're
> not investing, you're gambling.
Depends on your comfort zone and sense of adventure.
>
>
> To make matters worse, Asian governments arebeginning to outright REJECT the
> western economic system.
> Thailand hasalready begun to impose restrictions on its financial markets, and
> Hong Kong, once the epitome of free market capitalism, has started to buy it's
> own stock!
>
These are all temporary measures, everyone knows you cannot tradeif you are
closed.
> We all know that Asian money has been flowing into the US debt market in a
> flight to quality. What hasn't been reported very widely is that most of
> this money has been flowing into long term debt instuments, such as 30yr
> Treasury Bonds. If the Asians themselves were expecting a quick turnaround
> in their economies, this money should have gone into short term paper, such
> as Treasury Bills, especially when you consider that the interest rate
> differential between the short end and long end is extremely small right
> now.
>
You can be sure those buying the long term or short term are still " hot"
money, they can be soldback anytime as the Japanese are doing now, in hordes.
The flight to qiuality
is also dependent on the whims of the markets, after some time has passed and
when the Asian fever is lower, you can be sure they will be going somewhere for
better
yields (but so gradual, its hard to see or feel it).
> If Asian investors aren't expecting things to improve soon Gerrit, why do
> you? And as for those Asian students in US colleges, why do you think so
> many of them chose to stay in the US after they graduate?
>
For now, the best opportunities for them is still in America, that is, for now.
> The good news is, none of this means a hill of beans to the US economy.
> We'll just keep rolling right along...
Just monitor your major exporters like agricultural products and the
some listed companies like Boeing, Coca-cola and Caterpillar for
the sense of awareness.
> >> and IRAs. This money is temporarily being parked by fund managers
> >> (who think they can time the market, even though their track record
> >> is terrible) in bond and money market funds. This money is
> >> accumulating like a time bomb, getting bigger and bigger by the day.
> >> Once the political situation is resolved, that money is going to
> >> flow back into equities, and the "upside panic" will begin.
>
As long as your mutual fund families is still in control of the situation.
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