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Neal wrote:
<<I can state we are not in a bear market yet....there has to be a
sufficient spread between the nyse and S&P 500.>>
Bug, what happened to consumer confidence as the indicator of choice? You
told us to watch consumer confidence to know whether the bull was
retreating. I figured, when the second down month in a row in that
indicator came out last month, that you'd be heading to the sidelines.
After all, it was the first two down months in cc since '96. Your call on
cc was right on and I used it to confirm other bearish signals...
Good trading,
The Omega Man
-----Original Message-----
From: Dennis Holverstott <dennis@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 11:30 PM
Subject: Re: Rapidly changing fortunes
Neal's post never made it to the list (bad address) so here it is.
> GEE! I am sorrry. Asking a trick question. Well, I dunno, but I guess if
you
> are long and losing money that might be considered a bear market. But yet,
> you academic types no more than me. You see some people have a large
portion
> of their financial savings in the market and the money they lose is
> real...not a computer code. But since you asked as a fundamentalist, I can
> state we are not in a bear market yet....there has to be a sufficient
spread
> between the nyse and S&P 500. See Stocks and Commodities Dec. l997 issue
by
> C. Smith. Knowing when to exit this market could be the most important
> decision of your trading life,,,,but not as important as the next version
of
> the de Mark indicator.
> I love it when folks say don't no, don't care.Try that quote out when you
> manage money.
I'll try to reply a little more politely this time. Neal's post makes
exactly the point I was trying to make. We need to ask the right
questions. The question isn't "are we in a bear market?" Rather it's
"how do you define a bear market?"
Once we have defined a bear market, a computer (or a brown paper bag :-)
can easily tell us if we are there. But a computer can't create the
definition for us any more than it can tell us the meaning of life.
And, regardless of the answer to the bear market question, the REAL
question is "should I be long, short, or flat... right now?" Bull and
bear markets are interesting topics for reporters and academics. They
can spend hours debating the definitions. Even traders can have lots of
fun talking about it. But long and short positions are what traders
really care about and the only things that affect their account
balances.
--
Dennis
(Brown Paper Bag is a registered trademark of Tim Morge Inc.)
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