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On Mon, 31 Aug 1998, Earl ecrit:
>Today the spoo came within a whisker of the .382 fib retracement of the run from
>July '94-July98. That's good enough for me to call it a bear market...........
Good enough for me as well. I'm not sure why we get hung up
on goofy time frames. A healthy percentage of the human race
dumped money into the market between 1994 and 1998. I wonder
how many are still long from 1932 (and, at this point, why
they would care anyway). I would imagine that bear markets
aren't all that significant to those with an =extended= time
horizon.
It seems much more constructive to think in terms of a
=reasonable= time frame, identify the high and % retracement
therefrom, and call it on that basis.
1994 appears to be a pretty good point of departure; a nice
base was formed after which the market screamed higher with
a resultant 100% increase in valuation within 4 years. I'd
have to call a 35%+ retracement from that level a "bear
market" (irrespective of the longevity thereof).
Best regards,
Jim
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