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Dans un courrier daté du 31/08/98 20:04:58 , vous avez écrit :
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What do our back testing gurus say. Is this a correction or the start of a
bear market? Surely we have enough info. to back test. C'mon it is time to
put all those gizmos together and give us your best shot. Bull market, bear
market or correction.
>>
I'm not sure to be one of the targeted recipents of this message, but for the
case..
All of the backtesting (and all the systems that I use after) rely on two
simple assumptions:
1) I could be able to know if I must be long or short for the next bar.
2) Doing so, and following the backtested rules on huge databases, I should
earn money and not to be wiped out by a monster drawdown tat I cannot afford.
That's all and it's difficult enough to do this with a timeframe of one bar
ahead.
For me, there are no bull or bear market when observing from the last bar what
will happen to the next one.
So, yo may undersatnd that I cannot explain if it's a correction, the start of
a bull market or a continuing bear market.
I do not know, I cannot know, and I do not want to know because I know that
the answer will be available ONLY when of no use for trading.
Using mainly 30 min bars in my systems, I could tell you what is the current
situation for the elapsing 30 minutes.
I do not believe that it will be of a great interest to the readers of this
list...
Sincerely,
Pierre Orphelin
http://www.sirtrade.com
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