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Re: Russia - Problem - what problem?



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At 11:16 AM 8/27/98 -0700, you wrote:
>Before you do anything else, first blink, make sure you are awake, then open
>your eyes and then check the stock ticker.  How about your favorite internet
>stock? Darling Cisco is off 3.5% today so far and darling Amazon is off 6%
>so far. It will take only a YEAR to earn that back in a T Bond, so why
>worry, right?  Like I say, if your not long AND you're not short, don't be
distracted for
>more than a nano second.
____________________________________________________________________________
_____

Copyright Reuters 1998: Today, a day later...

PALO ALTO, Calif., Aug 28 (Reuters) - Internet stocks have never followed
the laws of the rest of the market but Friday they showed they at least
follow the laws of gravity.

One day after the market collapsed in its worst trading day of the year,
stocks of online directories, search engines, travel agents and retailers
caught up -- or rather, down.

On Nasdaq, where most of the Internet stocks trade, the list of the biggest
declining issues read
like a Who's Who of Cyberspace.

Online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN - news) fell $13.11 to close at
$105.89; Yahoo!
Inc.(YHOO - news), the most popular Internet directory, lost $8 to $83.06;
search engine Inktomi
Corp. (INKT - news) was down $11.72 to $60.06; and Web programmer Broadcast.com
Inc.(BCST - news) fell $6.63 to $44.38.
_____________________________________________________________________________

It's worth studying the impact of shrinking inflated PE ratios in a real
time market sentiment shift, especially when they are actually one time
bubble market 'air ratios'.  What makes this most impressive is that it
happened today, a full two days after the sharp market selloff started. 

Is this a classic example of 'market inefficiency', handily corrected?  One
that was just waiting to be plucked. And plucked it was today.  Imagine a
one day low risk stock trade for a 16% gain, with no margin. I say low risk
because it wasn't like swimming against the tide when the front page of
every newspaper was reeling about worldwide market meltdowns. 

Some of these, I won't name names, closed on 'upticks' the day before, based
on marketmaker end of day 'high close' price manipulations. The perfect
setup for an efficient market. I wonder if 'market surveillance' was watching. 

Great trade in the SF today. Looks like the SF is demonstrating some of the
old 'scared money' that used to run into gold. It's countertrend, even
intraday, to the S&P. Been that way for months, at least. Rallies on down
days. That's one of the differences in this market. Gold is tanking instead
of rallying. Deflation has changed the market landscape. Even the gold
producers were selling by 'the truckload' this week. I sold Placer at
33.00CDN.  Today it's 15CDN and change.

The US dollar started DOWN in earnest this past two days. Notice the strange
strength in the JY. Was it the banks manipulating again or a fundamental
shift in the intermediate term world wide sentiment on the US dollar? 

Every country's currency has been crapping, except America, yet today the
USD is dropping.  Why is that?


Michael Paauwe
mpaauwe@xxxxxxxxxx