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At 06:02 PM 8/27/98 +0100, you wrote:
>Anyone who's worked in Russia will appreciate that they would prefer to get
>by without the Rouble - the parallel economy has existed in US$ for years.
>The R stockmarket is smaller than a tiddler - who cares other than the
>Russians if it tanks?
Like the recent 'MYTH exposed' myths.
George Soros, Germans investors and banks, all of Eastern Europe, the IMF
( which is precariously low on money ) and the US government, the lender of
last resort, as well as those lucky people that fund the IMF - the taxpayers.
Oh, and I almost forgot,... TRADERS looking for trends, correlations and
influences between markets, looking for low risk trades, that's where the
thread was going, in case you missed the earlier part.
>Other than shareholders who cares if irresponsible lending by US and German
>Banks gives up billions ?
People holding securities and other assets denominated in the currencies of
places like Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico and other Latin American countries and
Asia. The point is there is a global linkage and a chain reaction that
extends far outside Russia across the globe, even though its economy and
stock market by itself may be relatively small. Those that don't care will
likely get side-swiped by failing to pay attention to the
inter-relationships, is the point.
>So Russia dumps oil - what does that do for the oil price and the us
>stockmarket?
Drops the share price of the big US multinational oil giants. A couple of
them are Dow components and when they drop, the Dow drops. Like today for
instance.
>All this panic - tell me there is civil war or that the communists have
>plans to launch a few missiles - tell me anything that might just influence
>the rest of the world for longer than a nano second-
No panic, it's just there's money at stake. If their society breaks down due
to a complete economic collapse and that leads to civil unrest, that affects
world stability, which might affect gold and the stock market is all.
Anyone with money on the line should be paying attention for more than one
nano second or they will lose, sure as night follows day. Look at the NASDAQ
today, right now it's off 75 points! Transports are off 107 points. Several
hundred BILLION of wealth has been wiped out TODAY in the USA.
Don't need a civil war or communist missiles to lose your shirt, is all.
Before you do anything else, first blink, make sure you are awake, then open
your eyes and then check the stock ticker. How about your favorite internet
stock? Darling Cisco is off 3.5% today so far and darling Amazon is off 6%
so far. It will take only a YEAR to earn that back in a T Bond, so why
worry, right? L
ike I say, if your not long AND you're not short, don't be distracted for
more than a nano second.
But if you are a trader, you better pay attention or you'll be yesterday's
breakfast for someone else who IS paying attention.
Best thing about the markets: in the land of the blind, one eye is king.
best regards,
Michael Paauwe
mpaauwe@xxxxxxxxxx
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