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At 02:37 PM 8/18/98 -0500, Kevin wrote:
>Robert W Cummings wrote:
>
>>
Kevin wrote:
>Not to nitpick, but EEC usually means European Economic Community. I
>assume you are referring to CCC (Commodity Credit Corp) stocks. On the
>current corn S&D report, CCC stocks are projected at Zero for the 97/98
>crop year and they are not even a line item on the 98/99 crop year.
Ooop's was referring to exports but the sentence wasn't very good the
E.E.C. grain situation is handled by the CCC for world distribution.
CCC accomplishes these programs through the support of the Farm Service
Agency, Agricultural Marketing Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, and
other agencies of the Department of Agriculture.
CCC makes timely financing available under programs to export U.S. farm
resources to eligible foreign countries or E.E.C.
Kevin wrote:
I'm not aware of there ever being any defense stockpiles.
Sure we do you think we don't control food sources for times of emergencies.
The under the current grain situation the government will not need to stock
pile as they already own the grain on loan and just take it when its
forfeit from the farmer due to price.
CCC purpose is to maintain farm income and prices sufficient to sustain
U.S. agricultural production at levels that provide the (U.S. public) with
a balanced and adequate supply of agricultural commodities.
>> Also the set aside program is still there just not an incentive anymore for
>> the farmer.
Kevin wrote:
>It's effectively gone, which means there is no government contol over
>planted acres.
>
This is true now but after these large crops you may see this stick its
head up again as the US would like to see the farmer control planted acres
but he doesn't have a good track record of control.
>>
Kevin wrote:
>>Not familiar with it. Plus, cotton has nothing to do with Corn.
Its really does as it shows the government getting out of farm control and
you see them get right back in
another commodity. Step is a formula based on world cotton and if it gets
to cheep compared to ours we make up the difference. But cotton acres would
go to beans not corn so your correct about that.
>> Kevin I already took positions in corn, oats, and beans, past tense. So now
>> you can watch me be wrong but until then just watch me most everybody does
>> everytime I do this as they did in 94. Yes it is a very nice story this
>> time you watch next time maybe you can do it to.
>>
>
Kevin wrote:
>Hey, I hope it works for you. Over time you will be correct. My main
>point was that buying the deffereds you could get left in the cold on
>any price rise which reduces the carrying charge. You've got a potential
>for a dime advantage your way or a dollar or more if you own the nearby.
>
This is a statement that puzzles me because I think the front month is
going lower maybe below $2.00
and stay for a while. A dollar to a dime not unless you can predict such
things like a major disaster in the current corn crop.
>
Kevin wrote:
You asked the list for input on your trade idea, so I pointed out a few
>things. You also mentioned that you bought futures and sold calls, so I
>have another suggestion. Since you are selling synthetic puts, cut your
>transaction costs in half and simply sell puts outright.
I never asked for an input on this I asked if there were any other
suggestions as I can't watch them all is what I said. Selling necked puts
requires full margin and can be very dangerous with so many bears. Under my
way I don't have to put up any money and am always protected and still have
to be right later.
Kevin I don't mind your comments but I have been away on jury duty so I
wasn't here to answer.
Your argument for not doing this is universal you have many that agree with
you and disagree with me.
I always stand a change of catching some very bad weather personally I'm
looking for a drought or the real treat of one before next years crop is
made. The reason for doing it still remains cost to produce.
Regards,
Robert
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