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Walt:
I need a little more time to think about your post, but I'd like to
clarify that I wasn't referring to "chaos" as popularly defined, but
just the old fashioned concept of disorder.
I do agree that what appears random in the short run is often not
random in the long run. I think most traders realize that the shorter
the time interval, the more random the price activity. It follows
that, if you extrapolate to infinity -- (another way of saying,
"Eternity," randomness is swallowed up by order, or design.
My premise is that order cannot appear out of disorder. I know that
people disagree with this but if one contemplates how much time it
would take for the simplest of ordered structures to appear out of a
random process, well, you get to where you need to think in terms of
LOTS of time, i.e. eternity. Their simply isn't enough time for
complex things to be formed out of a random or even not-perfectly
random process...that is, not without that big Coincidence that is an
act of intelligent input from a Creator, or an injection of energy,
which begs the question, from where?
Thanks for bringing this up, because it forces me to clarify what was
sort of a contradiction in my previous post. On one line I said that
order cannot come from chaos, and on another I postulated that what
appears random to us in a finite period of time is ordered from the
perspective of infinite time (eternity). This I conclude from tests I
have run beginning with tick charts and increasing the time frames.
What appears as a randomness on a tick chart is part of a trend on a 1
minute chart, etc. etc. If that is extrapolate-able (i.e. what
appears as randomness on a 500 year chart is really a subset of a
1,000,000 year trend), the conclusion is obvious -- in the
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG run, randomness is a just a temporary bounce in a
clear trend; that is, disorder is a subset of order. That is, as time
approaches Eternity, order, design, and thus, intelligent will,
becomes more and more evident.
I appreciate your post.
CW
---Walt Downs <knight@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> Charles,
>
> I can't speculate on the more religious aspects of your post, however,
> I Would like to comment on the following comment you made:
>
> CW wrote:
> "Chaos will not produce order."
>
> This isn't right. "Chaos" is an unfortunate misnomer given by the
> scientific community to a branch of mathematics dealing with
> "unseen levels" that produce chaotic and entropic environments.
> It is in fact a very high level of order, and one very relevant to the
> trading environment.
>
> The first few chapters of Bill William's "Trading Chaos" gives some
> very insightfull examples. While I do feel that Bill went astray in
the
> later chapters by trying to link this with Elliot Wave Theory, the
first
> 3 or 4 chapters and closing chapters are worth the price of the
> book. Regardless of your favorite methodology (Dow, EWT, Gann,
> cyclical trading....etc. ) this is a good primer in the consideration
> and addition of chaos as a trading tool.
>
> Walt Downs
> CIS Trading
>
>
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