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A near 300 point drop must have had hands clapping or wringing, according to
whether or not it is a correction within the Bull market or the famous, if
not infamous, start of the Bear market. To be long or to be short, that is
the question - well, it is for position players! Although one imagines that
there were a few questions concerning margin calls, drawdowns and fast
market conditions when it came to the slippage, well before anything
else. I'll bet a few indicators went haywire while the Spoo was descending
in indecent haste!
The Bond boys, of course, in true contrarian fashion had an up day. Not a
sizzling one, but a small gap to the south was begging to get filled by the
nine o'clock report and the bullish retracement afterwards pointed the
market north, just as the Spoo started its major treck south into the swamps
for the bulls to flounder around in! The fun stopped abruptly and clearly
on major sup/res coincident with the re-jigged S1
If you are playing for position, the stakes on S&P are high and how the heck
anyone knows where it is going next, beats me. It also seems to beat most
of the people on this list - judging by those who forecast what is going to
happen and what actually happens. I assume that the people who make the
money are the observers who are quiet position players, with deep pockets
and they don't really want to tell anyone how they do it!
Day trading, by a different token, cannot be forecast. The map can be
drawn, the hills and valleys of resistance and support marked out and there
are various signs and indications to help point the way. (O, before I go any
further and before the usual voices jump down my throat, I am talking Bonds
here and it is all my own opinion.) It really does take a while to click on
this point. You won't make spectacular fortunes day trading and you have
to put your own toil into it. No system, no nothing is going to be a
substitute.
But, as far as I can make out, if you have the loot to withstand the bad
times all in row, the rich can become a lot richer with good positional
play. But a day like yesterday on the Spoo, scares the hell out of me.
Ah well, back to the Bonds and that huge two-bar reversal over the Pivot to
put the market into the same move in the opposite direction Today. So,
without looking, I can tell you that the Spoos are on the up - for how long
will depend on whether the Bonds make a double bottom just above S1 or not.
But I ain't in the forecasting game...
Just some thoughts, to provoke some thoughts,
Bill Eykyn
Which system or indicator is going to be right - well right enough to put
your money on - I haven't a clue. Consequently, I have made it my business
to be in a business where not having a clue on what the market does the next
day is almost a virtue. By not knowing I am not conditioned, so I can read
the tape as it happens and let the market tell me what sort of condition it
is in...
Fortunately, I don't need to know. Bull or bear, I don't care.
Even from the day traders perspective we will no doubt hear the stories of
how much was made being short at the start or having bought a put or three
at the opening bell. The tales of glory will be loud, while the salvage
stories will just be gory.
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