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Peter:
Well, perhaps they should do some very basic investigation into the business of
trading. The more informed they are before they begin, the more likely they are
to go bust. And by informed, not just informed about a system, a quote system or
how to tune their computer.
The markets have been around for thousands of years. many people now think that
something has 'changed' because computers are here and there is an internet.
Many of these same people think the stock markets can grow to the sky, because
the 'fundamentals' of economies have now changed--and we'll never need or have
recessions again. These people are naive.
Trading is trading is trading. Learn a good solid foundation, not today's fad.
Tim Morge
Peter Kiefer wrote:
>
> o.k. they should invest in your workshops --- right
>
> ----------
> > From: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
> > Date: 03 August 1998 16:00
> >
> > Thanks for your response.
> > I wish more people were this direct. People tend to think all they need
> is
> > software and a system and they are on their way to Easy Street with Easy
> > Language. Hey, maybe that could be a new slogan...Easy Street with Easy
> > Language.
> > You know when you consider that the Vanguard Funds are up nearly 100% in
> > three years, it is hard to understand why people even fall prey to
> commodex.
> > The Merc has a course called before you trade. But I can tell you this.
> > Anyone with less than 20,000 in trading cash should not be in Futures.
> > Period. End of Story. I am tired of hearing about people saving $7500,
> then
> > buying software for $3500 and using the balance to trade.
> > And anyone with more than $10,000 in credit card debt can never trader
> > themselves out of debt.
> > Take the $7500.00 and buy a vending route.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Conrad Bowers <cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Cc: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Sunday, August 02, 1998 3:23 PM
> > Subject: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
> >
> >
> > >Neal T. Weintraub wrote:
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> wHAT DO YOU THINK OF TRADING AS A WAY TO FINANCIAL SUCCESS.
> > >> PLEASE POST YOUR RESPONSE TO THE LIST.
> > >>
> > >
> > > For a minute I thought this was a joke (in light of my very recent
> > >post) but I believe it's not so here goes:
> > >
> > > I think you have to have a method that actually makes money and the
> > >capital to withstand the drawdowns that will occur before you succeed.
> > >That makes it not a very good way to go for someone of limited means or
> > >anyone who is emotionally attached to money. The brochures that say,
> > >we have a great system, and then show it on 20 commodities, often go on
> > >to say, "you can trade this on a more limited portfolio with $5000".
> > >Even tho they may have been honest in their testing, I believe the
> > >chances of the smaller portfolio having acceptable results is much
> > >lower. Primarily because the drawdown numbers for a smaller portfolio
> > >will be more prone to being inaccurate or the portfolio "cherry picked".
> > >
> > > It's not the easy street it's made out to be either. Unless it's a
> > >small portion of your net worth and NOT your way of making a living,
> > >it's hard to see how it could not be anything but stressful to some
> > >degree.
> > >
> > > For many of us who have other careers, it can become a second job in
> > >itself, maybe even supplanting our original one. In effect my original
> > >goal to pay off some debts has become a goal to succeed in trading. And
> > >that goal has distracted me quite a bit from my first career. I can
> > >tell you why I don't like my current job, but was the transition to
> > >spending a lot of time on trading well thot out? Nope, it evolved. For
> > >those of us who seek to make a transition (or by default are making the
> > >transition) from our current career to trading as a means of making a
> > >living or being sucessful, maybe we should step back partway along the
> > >way and ask, was this the right thing to do?
> > >Even if it was a means to $ sucess for an individual with another
> > >career, it might not be right for them. I guess everyone has to ask
> > >themselves what success is.
> > >
> > > Also I think your emotions have to favor you being in it. If you have
> > >conflicting feelings about it, it's less likely you will succeed.
> > >Recently, I built up my small account from about 3K to 6K, patiently
> > >grinding out small losses and a few larger wins in options and
> > >mini-contracts. But a number of emotionally charged issues have come
> > >up, at times introducing frustration, discouragement, and even guilt
> > >into my thoughts. After being rigorous (perhaps too much so) about
> > >kicking back options that werent' making money, I suddenly stopped
> > >looking at options i had altogether, same with most potential new
> > >positions. What was going on? The only thing I can think of, is that
> > >my ambivilence about some of my decisions, including getting into
> > >trding, was being manifest by actions that might take me out of it. I
> > >used to scoff at some of the stuff in M. Douglas book about how you may
> > >defeat yourself - seemed crazy, why would anyone do that? But now, I
> > >think I've seen it in my own trading.
> > >
> > > In short then I think it is a way to financial success for a few people
> > >- The ones who either find a method and/or have the talent to succeed
> > >in this field. It's a low-probability route for someone who does not
> > >have a fair amount of capital already. I think its a way to financial
> > >success for someone who:
> > >
> > >1. has a positive expectation system or talent, and has confidence in
> > >it.
> > >
> > >2. has the capital to back that up.
> > >
> > >3. has a risk mgmt plan consisntent with 1+2.
> > >
> > >4. Doesn't have conflicting emotions about the money at risk; doesn't
> > >have conflicting emotions about other issues or people that are in any
> > >way impacted by the decision to trade.
> > >
> > >
> > >What % of people in this crazy arena do you think have all 4? For those
> > >it's a good way to financial success. For the rest, nope.
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