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Bill
I enjoyed your recent post. Thank you!!!
You make reference to a .gif file that you included from your manual, which I
failed to receive. Would you please repost.
Thank you again,
Robert Fitzpatrick
San Francisco, CA
T-BONDTRADER wrote:
> John, Dan and others searching for indicators
>
> I have been a member of this list for a little while, but this is my first
> contribution. Couldn't resist it, following some posts which I have been
> involved with on another list, concerning my views on indicators - or rather
> my views on the fact that I do not trade with them, because....
>
> I re-print a post below which may be of some interest. First of all, let
> me say
> that for the last few years I have only traded the T-Bonds and I do, indeed,
> only day trade them. Secondly, for those on this list, who may well be on
> the other list, please just press the 'delete' key and accept my apologies
> for this duplication:
>
> This is the post I responded to:
>
> >I have been reading, and observing the Posts made by Real Traders for about
> >5 months now, along with the Market predictions, different formulas, i.e.
> >charts, lines, forks etc., and not only do I find allot of conflicting
> >ideas, I truly do not see any consistency in any of these ideas!
> >
> I get in and out, go to bed, wake up the next morning and do it
> >again. I just do not understand, how anyone, even with charts and
> >indicators, can predict the future of any market?
>
> This was my response, which I hope may be of some help for some people:
>
> I would like to say just how much I agree with the sentiments expressed.
> Day trading the T-Bonds is a way of making a living.
> Once you have learnt the ropes and understand what it is
> all about, it is very feasible to do it day after day after day after day.
> But to position trade it, is as impossible as any other market. How the
> heck any private individual can make a living out of that, I do not know.
>
> I can understand how you can speculate. No problem. With large amounts of
> capital, the ability to withstand drawdowns and using a blend of
> fundamentals (COT, Open Interest, Volume, etc) and technical analysis, I can
> see how one could make sizeable chunks of loot position trading. But making
> a private living out of it......
>
> Every day, I do what I do do and my brand of TA in a truly liquid, near
> slippage free market allows me to make a living. Over night, I sleep - but
> I do need to know what the Globex High and Low are the next day - but that
> is my sole interest in what happens when the day has ended. The next day,
> I do what I do do, again. It is not a stressful way of putting bread on the
> table. Believe me!
>
> But guess what? The only indicator you need is called PRICE ACTION. The
> only indicator that works consistently is called PRICE ACTION. The only
> indicator that doesn't lag is called PRICE ACTION. And where does the PRICE
> ACTION count most? At major support and resistance levels. And where do
> you find those? Where the PRICE ACTION has shown you where the PRICE ACTION
> has been.
>
> Trading is not complicated, but by Fibonacci, traders try and make it so...
>
> Bill Eykyn
>
> As you might expect, there was at least one person on the list who thought
> my views on
> indicators were far too strong....
>
> I replied as follows (edited):
>
> Over time, I have become very dogmatic over price action being preferred to
> conventional indicators. But, I say this in the context of day trading the
> T-Bonds. For clarity, let me say it again, DAY TRADING THE T-BONDS. For
> me, when you are talking about a market which regularly trades half a
> million contracts a day, some times much more, and on occasions over a
> million, there are going to be unique factors. Notwithstanding this
> fantastic liquidity (one tick spread, hardly ever any slippage) the daily
> range is pretty small compared to, say, the S&P where indicators will react
> very differently, no doubt. There is a wonderful, controlled (by
> comparison
> to most!) movement in the T-Bonds. Ultra- boring for some people. But up
> and down the chart once or twice in a day for $500-$1,000 per contract is
> good news for some people. The point is, the set ups and the price action
> tell you what the T-Bonds are likely to do next.
>
> Conventional indicators, as I have said many times, may and probably do work
> very well for position players. They may work day trading some other
> instrument - I haven't a clue. Now, some newbie traders will be starting
> out position trading and may find an indicator or three just the job. Other
> newbies, with less capital and looking to earn a living on a daily basis,
> will, so far as I can advise, based on my experience (does that qualify it
> enough?) be better off learning to trade, through reading the tape - which
> is what price action is all about. They will be learning in a market which
> is receptive to the beginner, for a mass of reasons, too numerous to go into
> here.
>
> I have survived long enough to know that it would have been very nice to
> have been able to come to my conclusions, now, right at the beginning -
> rather than learning from very hard knocks. The newbie still has to learn
> and we all know there ain't no Holy Grail, but wouldn't it be nice to learn
> to
> read the tape, rather than be conned by all the system vendors, gismo
> marvels and wondrous indicators - all of which, as far as I can see, lag
> the market.
>
> All I am suggesting is that you can learn to read the tape (I am talking
> Bonds here) and do not need conventional indicators by the ton to do it.
> The fact I don't recommend any, is only because I have not found a need for
> them. Dear O dear, if I thought an RSI or triple crossover MA would do the
> trick, I'd be the first to say so.
> Why not? If someone has an indicator that works, use it. All I am
> suggesting is don't waste a mass of time, energy and maybe money looking for
> some wonderful indicator to tell you what to do. Most newbie's search for
> them and systems to be able to trade with buy and sell signals. I've been
> there, done that and didn't bother with the T-shirt. Now I'm on the
> T-Bonds and you don't need an indicator.
>
> I'll say no more because I am not trying to convince anyone to do anything.
> I don't have to - I am not selling indicators!! But for some people I
> might, through my manual, just save them a lot of heartache or banging
> their heads on a brick wall trying to find a leading indicator that will
> give them their fortune...
>
> A lengthy first contribution (but hopefully useful reading for over the
> week-end), but I really did feel sorry for those two people who went out and
> spent money on indicators - as if Omega don't have enough on TS and SC as it
> is!
>
> Finally, I attach a .gif of a page taken from my manual on trading the
> T-Bonds, which as all will see does not have an indicator in sight, but
> gives every indication of what the market might do - through reading the
> tape!
>
> Happy Trading
>
> Bill Eykyn
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